Happiness and optimism abound in for all things Ohio State football, and recently Tim May and Ken Gordon indulged a little bit in that revelry. Is all the talk about what is to come justified? Should you expect to be high-fiving your buddies this time in 2011?
Vegas thinks Ohio State’s odds are pretty good (at the moment). Let’s talk about it.
According to the gurus at Bodog, the Buckeyes’ are a better bet than everyone except Alabama. Other oddsmakers have slightly different interpretations, but they are all relatively similar. Here is the Bodog Top 15:
2011 BCS Championship Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Alabama | 3:1 |
| Ohio State | 13:2 |
| Oregon | 12:1 |
| Southern Cal | 12:1 |
| Oklahoma | 15:1 |
| Texas | 15:1 |
| Nebraska | 15:1 |
| Boise State | 15:1 |
| Virginia Tech | 18:1 |
| TCU | 18:1 |
| Iowa | 20:1 |
| Penn State | 20:1 |
| Miami | 20:1 |
| Florida | 25:1 |
| LSU | 25:1 |
Other odds of note:
Other Notable 2011 BCS Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Michigan | 50:1 |
| Notre Dame | 75:1 |
| Illinois | 100:1 |
| Michigan State | 100:1 |
| Northwestern | 125:1 |
The field’s odds: The Tide is an top obvious selection as they are bringing back a cadre of starters and stars - Ingram, Jones, McElroy - but I found it slightly surprising that Boise State was not considered to have as good or greater odds than Nebraska, Oklahoma, and/or USC, all teams that lost a significant amount of firepower, including a Heisman winner and future no. 1 draft choice. As you probably know, I am not supporter of the non-AQ field, but I thought the Broncos may have generated more gambling buzz.
Another surprise for me was Virginia Tech’s relatively low odds considering the league they play in sucks on ice, while they are returning a reputable amount of talent. Finally, Ohio State plays three teams with odds of 20:1. By my count, they are the only team to play such (theoretically) contending teams.
OSU odds: While, I share the optimism for 2010 and I agree with most fans that Pryor looked far, far better in the Rose Bowl than he did at any point during the year, we should be cautious about getting too carried away about him. I thought that the main difference in his Rose Bowl play was that he had time to operate, which I attributed to four things: (1) improved o-line play, (2) balanced play calling that kept Oregon’s defense guessing, (3) a small, average Oregon defensive front, and (4) Oregon’s coaches’ inability to adjust to OSU’s pass-heavy gameplan. Pryor’s mistakes in the Purdue debacle almost all came when he panicked under the pressure that Purdue brought. He only faced pressure in his face three or four times against the Ducks and, frankly, he still didn’t handle it well. On one occasion, he badly missed a wide open Sanzenbacher on an almost certain TD and the other was the Holy Ballard catch. I realize I seem far more skeptical than most, but I just question whether the improvement in his decision-making and game-management has been as drastic as everyone has declared. I really want it to happen for him — and the entire offense — but he won’t succeed unless the entire offensive operation (blocking, scheming, play-calling) improves.
So, are the 13:2 odds justified. If they play as well in every game as they did against Oregon. The real question is, what are the odds that another Purdue disaster is on the schedule?
By now you know who is facing whom in all of the BCS games this year. But for the record here is the rundown:
Sugar Bowl:
Cincinnati vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl:
Boise State vs. Texas Christian
Orange Bowl:
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
Rose Bowl:
Oregon vs. Ohio State
BCS National Championship Game:
Texas vs. Alabama
Well, as much as it would seem that the BCS hates the Big Ten, they’re one of only two conferences to get two teams into BCS bowls. (Partially due to the two “mid-majors” in the Fiesta Bowl.) I would love to see Texas beat Alabama because I really don’t like the SEC and never have, but I’m kind of getting tired of this whole “Big 12 vs. SEC” game for the national championship. And I really don’t understand the Fiesta Bowl matchup. I know both TCU and Boise have been trying to make a case to play for the title, but playing each other isn’t going to get it done. If anything, I think the greatest interest would have come from switching TCU and Cincy in their respective bowl games. But I digress. For the state of Ohio football, I hope that Florida puts Cincinnati in their place by 30 and that Ohio State is able to muscle out a win against Oregon. Tell me your predictions below in the comments section.
My history major brain is telling me that no Civil War battle ever took place in Oregon. But, if this were 140 years ago we might be getting pretty close. Oregon and Oregon State are currently locked in their annual Civil War. I can’t imagine what those who are devout American-ites would be saying about the rivalry if it was as huge as, say…The Game. But, I digress. Oregon hasn’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1995 and Oregon State hasn’t been there since 1964. No matter who wins, our Buckeyes will be facing two teams who love to run the football and take it up and down the field. Unfortunately for them, the Pac-10 has this nasty habit of not playing defense very well (part of the reason why USC has dominated the past decade). Who would you rather see in Pasadena on January 1? I was rooting for Arizona, but since that’s out of the question, I’ll go with Oregon State for a number of reasons.
I don’t want to jinx us with the picture, but the entire off-season, the entire regular season has led up to today (well, about 2 hours from today). I will be live tweeting my thoughts and observations on the game, so if you’re a twitter fan pay attention. Here’s to the first Rose Bowl in the new millennium. Cheers.
