Now, bear with me a for a moment after what I’m about to say.  Terrelle Pryor has been pretty good passing the ball the last two games.  I mean good to the tune of 24/48 (50%), 374 yds, 3 TDs, and only 1 INT.  While the completion percentage doesn’t look quite like Colt McCoy’s the TD:INT ratio is where I like to see it.  Want to hear something more surprising than those numbers?  In the past two games, Pryor has only been sacked once.  Now, granted, one of these games was against New Mexico State, but that doesn’t mean that the starting 11 doesn’t have to go out there on Saturdays and do their jobs right.

Does anyone else see a correlation between the two stats?  Well, compare those numbers for the past two games with the Oct. 17 loss at Purdue.  Pryor was 17/31 (55%), 221 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  In addition, Pryor lost two fumbles.  And as for the offense line that game?  They gave up 5 sacks.  Yeah, I’m starting to see a pattern here.

It may be elementary that passers who get better protection are going to pass better, but Pryor has been taking heat all year for his throwing, but the fact of the matter is he’s been under pressure all year behind an offensive line that has been more porous than swiss cheese.  Now this doesn’t absolve Pryor from all the blame, but surely it at least covers some of it.  I would love to have some numbers on the amount of time Pryor has had from the snap of the ball until he throws or is forced to scramble/roll out because of pressure.  But as a college kid who lives off of $60 every two weeks for groceries, I’m not really in the market for a DVR.

However, what I will be doing this weekend as I’m downing Budweiser’s watching the game from the comfort of my living room is taking the time and effort to calculate that exact stat for examination.  Make a mental note of it yourself, if Pryor is given ample time in which to make a decision about where he should throw or whether he should tuck it and run without being chased from the backfield by a defensive lineman or a blitzing linebacker he should have games comparable to his last two and the team will have a greater chance of coming out of Happy Valley with a Happy W.

I said in my last post that we were definitely going to beat Purdue and there was no chance of an upset.  But that is just the game that college football is.  The intangibles mean more to college football than any other sport: turnovers, momentum, home/away.

So now many of you are asking: now what?  I read comments saying that its only a matter of time before we as Ohio State fans realize that Tressel is only a glorified version of John Cooper, that he’ll never win the big game (Cooper’s being Michigan, Tressel’s being Top 5 opponents obviously).  Ohio State is no longer the highest rated team from the state of Ohio, and that is something that some of us never dreamed we’d see.  Terrelle Pryor seems to be taking two steps forward and three steps back, week after week.  So that leaves many of us scratching our heads, where does the Ohio State program go from here?

Forward.  As a fanbase, as a team, as a coaching staff.  I know we can still win the Big Ten this year and it could still realistically happen.  And if we do, we’re going to the Rose Bowl where maybe, just maybe we’ll be able to beat a big name team for the first time in a long time.  And if that happens, hallelujah, all is saved.  But in all reality, if this team plays every week like they did last weekend at Purdue, they’re not going to come close to winning the Big Ten.  But there’s still hope for this team.  I know you’re saying that this team has a lot of potential, and a lot of talent, and that a lot of  it is being wasted.  But there’s still a lot of growing left to do on this team.  Hell, Terrelle Pryor is younger than I am.

Some people have said that Pryor should be benched, or maybe he should be moved to wide receiver.  Doing either of those, in my opinion would be a big, big mistake.  Pryor is not the only guy on this team who has not stepped up this year.  There’s the offensive line who hasn’t provided and adequate blocking game in what seems like my lifetime.  There’s a young wide receiver corps from which no go-to guy has really emerged yet.  But I think worst of all is the fact that the stigma that is haunting this team is really starting to get to the players.  Tressel would never say it and neither would any of his players, but I think this Ohio State team is really feeling like they’re in a make-or-break situation in terms of national perception.  So maybe the best thing for this team would be to finish third in the Big Ten.  Try their luck in a bowl game in which they don’t have to play a Top 5 team, where there’s not a large national audience watching them and try to build some momentum for next year.  I feel like this year is starting to become comparable to 2004, an 8-4 year ending with a trip to the Alamo Bowl, but one that culminated with an offensive explosion against both Michigan and Oklahoma State (even without Troy Smith).  What happened the year after that?  A Fiesta Bowl win over Notre Dame.  And the year after that?  A trip (albeit a forgettable one) to the National Championship Game.

So maybe it takes a step back year to provide real progress for the future.  Hell, it worked for the 2004-2006 teams.  And knowing Tressel, he’s not going to let guys quit this year or any year in the near future when things look bleak.  Eventually, he will find a way for this offense to truly click on all cylinders with the guys he has now, the guys he will get in the following years, and without those who are leaving.  He’s done it before, but college football is a team game that can take a year or two to perfect with personnel.  Even I’ll admit that a loss to Purdue last weekend was unacceptable.  But if it helps take this team to a more positive place with a more determined work effort, then it was a good loss.

We huddled up in advance of the season’s biggest game and talked through some questions surrounding this weekend’s matchup with USC.

Which would be a better sign for Ohio State this Saturday night: Terrelle Pryor rushes for 125 yards or passes for 250 yards?

Massey: In my mind, this is a really close call but I will take the 250 passing yards with a caveat: Pryor can only have one interception.  The tempting part of picking the 125 yards rushing is that it conjured images of Vince Young running wild against the Trojans.  If Pryor throws for big yards but is intercepted on two or three occasions the Buckeyes will have little chance.  Without those picks, though, the running game would open up considerably as Saine and Herron are more than capable of capitalizing on favorable defensive alignments.

Poe: Pass bro, pass. 250 yards passing means that Terrelle Pryor did what USC didn’t think he could do: throw the football.  Normally an Ohio State QB doesn’t need 400+ yard passing (good, because it won’t happen) to win a game. Todd Boeckman against Penn State only had around 250 yards to his name, but it opened up everything else for a 37-10 blowout (+7 points special teams for PSU).  If Terrelle is going to win the game running, he needs to push twohundro, which is something the phenom has been phenomenal about.

Cassius: In all honesty, I’d rather see him rush for 125.  Its possible this could happen because he would be forced to scramble all night, but I prefer a different theory.  If Tressel can come up with more running packages and plays for Pryor, whether it be draws, sweeps or option plays and get Pryor into the open field and get the USC defense thinking run about 50% of the time he drops back it would force the defense to concentrate on Pryor running and allow Pryor more time in the pocket and allow the receivers better coverages to work against.  IMHO, this would keep the USC offense off the field early and subsequently open up the passing game allowing Pryor to throw for 250.

Which of the following most closely approximates your takeaway from the Navy game: (a) the Buckeyes are totally overmatched against USC this weekend; (b) the OSU offense is fine but the defense needs work; or (c) the Buckeyes relaxed in the second half and you cannot take anything away from that game?

P: (a) approximates my takeaway. Is it true? We’ll find out this weekend.  Ohio State didn’t do anything extremely well against Navy and it showed.  At no point did I think OSU was endanger (12+ Miller Lites will do that), but only a couple pieces of the puzzle well into place.  Kurt Coleman is a stud and Terrelle Pryor is the best athlete on the team.  OSU needs work all around.  USC laid down 620 yards of offense in Week 1, something OSU can only achieve with a bazillion NFL draft picks against one of the worst Notre Dame secondaries EVA. (c) The Buckeyes did relax, but this is a young team that could slowly turn into the “meh, winning the Big Ten is enough” mantra that the previous class(es) played to.

C: I find it hard to take a lot away from the Navy game.  Its fairly easy to see why Ohio State scored on 60% of their drives as Navy is only a decent defense and Pryor is simply a hell of an athlete; and its also understandable that the defense would give up as many points as they did and as many yards as they did considering that Navy’s offense is one that most defenders had probably never seen before and will probably never see again.  That being said, I think it is only after this weekend that we will know where the offense and defense stand on a larger scale, after facing a conventional (I use that word lightly considering the athletes USC has) offense and defense.  But, if I had to predict what units were going to come up short performance wise this weekend I’d have to go with: 1. Secondary, 2. Linebackers, 3. O-Line.

M: A little from column B and  a little from column C.  While I am not super concerned about any one thing, including the defense, I am concerned with the safeties’ ability to match up with USC’s receivers or, god forbid, Stanley Havili again does give me some serious pause.  I know Hines is likely to see most of the playing time instead of Russell, but he is certainly no upgrade in the coverage department.  (As a friend of mine says, he misses the potential of Eugene Clifford more every game.)  I have other concerns with the offensive line but they did score on 6 of 10 possessions against Navy, who is a good (not great) team.  I did not see any signs of the Ohio State apocalypse last weekend but I have will have plenty of worries around 8:00 p.m. on Saturday night.

Without a hint of bias (if that is possible), what do you expect from Matt Barkley?

C: I think that Barkley’s overall performance will hinge on his first couple of drives and in what circumstances they take place.  If USC gets the ball first, is able to march down the field and put points on the board (FG or TD, doesn’t matter) then that will surely do wonders for his confidence and will probably snowball into a solid outing, probably nothing Colt McCoy-esque, but solid (14/25, 220 yds, TD, INT).  On the other hand, if his first drives comes when the Trojans are down 3 or 7 and there’s some pressure on him to lead the team to a score, or he comes out and throws a pick I think his night could turn into a very freshman like performance (10/21, 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT).

P: He’ll think to himself that he was clearly wrong about 105,000 people not being a factor.  He’s never had 5,000 grandmas hate him before.  Children with sweet angel eyes will say “F*ck you Matt Barkley”.  And he’ll perform okay.  It depends on what Ohio State can do and will do.  If they give him the Chris Leak Preferred Opponents Pass and let him throw easy passes, he will.  If Thad Gibson blows him up a few times like Colt McCoy in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl, he’ll play like a freshman.  I expect he’ll be really good handing off to USC’s rushing attack.

M: Honestly, I expect a decent night from him (read: 15-24 for 215 yards), not because he is the second-coming but because they will not put him in positions to fail.  There will be lots of screens and dump passes that will gain yards but the surgically precise USC air attack should not be there.  Plus, the Buckeyes will concentrate on stopping the run, and they should.  If McKnight, Johnson, and Tyler are held in (relative) check (around 175 yards), I think Ohio State will be in a good place.

Care to hazard a guess at the score?

M: I hate making predictions.  Whatever the outcome, I guarantee this game will be competitive with 5:00 to go.

P: I’ve predicted doom and gloom on ElevenWarriors.com. 31-17 USC.  This prediction is void if Ohio State comes out with new schemes on offense and defense, but I expect it to be more of the same.

C: I’m tempted to say no.  The last time I tried to call a score was the ‘06 Michigan game, and that didn’t go over so well.  But for posterity purposes I’ll say 27-21 Buckeyes.

1) A WR with 65 or more yards: I feel especially confident about this one considering it only happened 4 times all of last season. Two of those occasions included a 53-yard reception by the eclipsing receiver. I have no doubt Pryor improved his passing and progressions during the offseason but the stories coming out of practice have not been filled tales of laser strikes on out routes. To be certain, the Buckeyes will not be leaning on the passing attack in ‘09 but a lot of attention has been paid to the younger receivers and their ability to make more plays. Pryor’s permission to scramble will not help the passing game either.

2) Long, sustained drives: If there is one unit that should worry you (and there is more than one) it is the offensive line. Justin Boren seems ready to step in, add tenacity and nastiness that has been sorely lacking, adn lead the line with Brewster. But there does not seem to be a solid starter of the remaining bunch. Mike Adams has failed to impress the coaches enough to receive all the first team reps. Shugarts is injured, which must be considered more concerning than alleviating. Missed assignments and miscommunication were the calling cards of the line in 2008 and spring practice has done nothing to dispel those trademarks. There is a long time for these guys to get better and Pryor allow them some cover because of his running ability but without a good-to-great offensive line, this team loses at least two games again.

3) The beginning of an increased role for TEs: I know Ballard and Stoneburner are great talents and catch almost everything thrown their way. I know Ohio State is short on reliable pass catchers and Pryor could use a big target. But until the tight end position combines for 5 or more catches per game I will assume it is business as usual.

4) An empty seat today: Has there ever been a better day for the Spring Game? (Actually, I seem to remember a day reminiscent of today a few years ago.) This game gives so many fans a chance to watch the Buckeyes play in the Horseshoe when they would otherwise not have the opportunity. I know every team does this but most teams do not have the extremely large and local alumni fan base that Ohio State does; 100,000 tickets don’t go as far as you would think. Personally, I will not be there but I hope that place is packed with fathers and sons and anyone else who wants to watch a game in the best stadium in the country.

5) Any reason to be concerned about the running backs: I have mentioned before that I will not be surprised if Saine ends up with more total touches than Herron this season. And, that is not meant to disparage Boom. I just see Saine as a more valuable back with Pryor running the show and he is the type of player that the Buckeyes have not had since Micheal Wiley. The combination of Saine-Herron-Pryor makes the running game extremely formidable. Now, add Berry and Hyde (albeit hyped and unproven players) to the mix and I think we can all rest easy when we peer into the backfield.

5a) A sweater vest: OK, I am making this one up. I cannot remember if the Senator has worn his uniform during past spring games but it does not seem like a formal enough occasion to require official garb.