On Thursday night, the Ohio State Buckeyes will embark on the journey that is the 2010 season.  The Buckeyes take on Marshall out of Conference USA, a team most remembered for a plane crash, a broken shin, and a Mike-Nugent-field-goal shy of upsetting the Buckeyes in 2004.  Things are a little different this time, as the Buckeyes return a majority of starters from last season and will hope to be playing for the MNC in January.  But before the Scarlet and Gray start thinking about bowls played next year, they’ll have to get past a new look Marshall team lead by first year head coach Doc Holliday.

On Thursday night, the Ohio State Buckeyes will embark on the journey that is the 2010 season.  The Buckeyes take on

 

 

Thursday Nights Are For Contenders

 As Jim Tressel likes to say, “September is for pretenders, and November is for contenders”.  For Ohio State, they’ll hope Thursdays are for contenders, as the Buckeyes open their season at home, under the lights, on a Thursday night for the first time in recent memory.  This will mark the first time since 1997 that the Buckeyes played a Thursday night game, a slot typically reserved for Big East and lower division teams.

 

Thursday night games are an interesting proposition, but typically to media deprived teams and conferences, as previously stated.  Gene Smith had the idea to grab the ESPN opening day slot and put his Buckeyes in the spotlight.  A funny thing happened when 16 matchups were also announced for Thursday night and ESPN picked up the Southern Miss at South Carolina hum-dinger instead.  That left the Buckeyes with a Big Ten Network slot in addition to the game being played while Fall Quarter isn’t in session and most people in attendance will be working the next day, let alone the visitors who typically travel 2.5 hours or more to see a game in the Shoe.

 

Fortunately, the Thursday time slot means you don’t have to wait 2 more days to start the football season. So there’s that.

 

Been Herd Before

 

West Virginia Buffaloes

For those complaining about opening against 1-AA (FCS) and MAC teams, they will be happy to hear that Marshall has made the jump…or drop…to Conference USA since their last visit to Columbus.  They’ve also seen Bob Pruett retire, Mark Snyder get fired, and the hiring of John “Doc” Holliday. 

Mark Snyder rings a bell? He was the Ohio State defensive coordinator in 2004 (yes, that 2004) only to ‘move on’ to Marshall after 1 season of firing the Silver Bullets.  That whole ‘moving on’ didn’t work as well as hoped for the Herd, and announced Doc Holliday as the head coach on December 17, 2009.  He brings 31 years of coaching experience to his first head coaching position, including assistant positions at Marshall, West Virginia, NC State, and Florida.  That Florida stop just happened to be as an associate head coach and safeties coach between 2005 and 2007, and those historians among us might be able to piece together some events that transpired on January 8, 2007 between Florida and Ohio State.  However, unless Doc is bringing some evil mojo (or Gatorade) and Ron-Zook-recruited players from Florida, this should have little affect on Thursday night’s game.

Marshall does return Senior Brian Anderson from last season to run Marshall’s spread attack.  Anderson isn’t afraid to take to the air, passing for 2,646 yards and 14 TDs in 2009, but the Buckeye defense should be on its toes as he also threw 13 balls to wrong team.  Unless the Ghost of Anderson Russell starts haunting the safeties, the combination of a strong Buckeye defensive line and an experienced secondary should lead to a turnover or 3.  Ohio State starts and ends with its defense, and Marshall just won’t have the firepower to exploit the Buckeyes.

 

On defense, Doc Holliday sums up Marshall’s game plan as “hope and pray”, in regards to corralling Terrelle Pryor.  While “hope and pray” sounds good to Buckeye fans who like offensive fireworks, expect Holliday and his defensive coordinator Chris Rippon to have a real, live plan.  A detractor would say “pop in the Purdue tape”, but Marshall doesn’t have the defensive line of Purdue and if Marshall’s defensive line looks like it is playing on par with Ryan Kerrigan, start with your prayers on your holy rosary.  Marshall should look to, and may successfully, shut down the Ohio State power plays, but there will be no answer for an improved Terrelle Pryor, running and passing.  Marshall did have a Top 4 defense last season…in Conference USA.  While the Marshall defense should be able to pressure Pryor and make tackles, it won’t be for the full 60 minutes, and the Buckeyes should be able to take advantage.

 

The All Americans

“For us to mimic Ohio State is very hard. They’ve got All-Americans at every position,” Holliday said. “The speed is a little different.”

While not entirely true (Doc may not have a real Ph.D) but he is on to something.  It would be hard for Marshall to replicate the speed of Terrelle Pryor and the power of Cameron Heyward.  (I won’t mention the nastiness of Justin Boren, in fear of Justin Boren) Sprinkle in other future NFL draftees among the 15 starters back from last year’s Rose Bowl winning team and, well, you get the point.  There’s a reason Ohio State is carrying the #2 ranking into their opening game.

 

As Matt Hinton of Dr Saturday points out, “But as of the start of this season, this is the only team that checks off virtually all the boxes on the “preseason favorite” checklist.”  There aren’t a bunch of unknowns with this bunch.  With most Tressel coached teams, there are and will be few surprises.  For this Tressel coached team, the key to the National Championship is big time plays by its veteran players.  Consistency is important in title runs, but you don’t become a champion without some luck, as the 2002 team, nicknamed for better or worse The Luckeyes, will tell you.

 

Buckeye Newcomers

It wouldn’t be college football without the addition of impact freshman (true or redshirt).  If they’re going to bite, they’re going to bite as a pup.  The Buckeyes feature 3 true freshman on the two deep including Jonathan “Big Hank” Hankins at NT/DT, Christian Bryant at the Star, and Corey “Philly” Brown as the ‘OR’ 3^rd or 4^th receiver with Chris Fields (in addition to punt returns).  Drew Basil, also a true frosh, will be handling kick offs and backing up Senior Devin Barclay on field goals.

 

But you don’t have to be a freshman to make an impact, as Solomon Thomas, Andrew Sweat, and CJ Barnett hope to prove.  Andrew Sweat beat out Etienne Sabino in a high contested battle for the open linebacker spot vacated by Austin Spitler.  In the end, Sweat’s instincts are believed to have sealed the deal, but expect both to see the field often.  CJ Barnett came out of figurative nowhere to be listed as the starting strong safety over spring favorite and the team’s best athlete, Orhian Johnson.  Johnson has been limited in practice due to a hamstring issue and while Tressel stated that Barnett won the job outright, Johnson is expected to fight for a starting spot when healed.  Solomon Thomas, a RS junior is looking to make his first start and see his first significant playing time.  The junior is filling in for an injured Nathan Williams and has packed on the weight to translate his spring production to games that count.

 

Sure, Sure, Unsure

There are things that OSU does well, there are things that OSU does not so well, and then there is scoring touchdowns in red zone.  A conservative Jim Tressel, working with an inexperienced offense, will always play for the guaranteed points and the +4 differential on a touchdown is merely icing on the cake.  So it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Buckeyes converted 25 of their 48 red zone possessions for 7 points in 2009 (roughly 50%) while settling for 3 points 13 of the remaining 23 tries.  In total, the Bucks were 38/48 in the red zone, for a 79.2% conversion rate.  Not bad for a Big Ten Championship winning , Rose Bowl winning team. 

 

But the Buckeyes have their sights set on running the table, and the best way to ensure that the ball bounces their way is by converting opportunities for points.  For example, Wisconsin scored on 54/58 (93.10%) attempts in the red zone, including 40 touchdowns and 11 field goals.  Texas scored on 53/58 (91.38%) attempts in the red zone, including 42 touchdowns and 14 field goals.  Alabama scored on 51/59 (86.44%) attempts in the red zone, including 28 touchdowns and 23 field goals.  The random sampling of 3 teams, chosen because they had high percentages than the Buckeyes, doesn’t mean that more conversion equal appearances in the National Championship game (just ask Wisconsin, undone by its defense and Scott Tolzien’s pick-6-fest).

 

For reference, Ohio State converted 85.19% of red zone trips into points in its 2006 championship run and 87.23% in its 2007 championship run.  Florida converted 91.18% in 2008.  LSU converted 93.33% in 2007.

Buffaloes Don’t Roam

Poe’s Prediction: Ohio State over Marshall - 38-6

This game should play out like the typical MAC outing, where the opponent puts up some points (6-10) and doesn’t let Ohio State score over 40.  Could Marshall call up the spirits of 2004 and hang with the Buckeyes?  Absolutely, but Terrelle Pryor and whoever is the RB are upgrades from Justin Zwick and Lydell Ross.  Heacock and Fickell are calling the shots on defense.  If you think Marshall has a shot, Vegas would like to disagree with you to the tune of 28.5 points.  Marshall was actually one of the more successful teams in college football in the 1990’s and they hope to be born again under Doc Holliday.  Unfortunately for the Herd, their rebirth, and brutal baptism, starts in front of 105,000 scarlet and gray clad fans and 22 of the best football players they will see the rest of the season.

 

The real story line will be what Terrelle Pryor brings to the table and whether or not he is able to build on his Rose Bowl MVP performance and not revert back to the beginning of the 2009 season.  From most accounts, Pryor is throwing the ball as well as he ever has in Columbus and the addition of the backs and TE (I said it) in the passing game should help him make better decisions.  There shouldn’t be any surprises on defense, but the Buckeyes may miss playmaker Kurt Coleman calling the shots from safety.  There’s no such thing as a warm-up game when you’re gunning for a championship, but this should be as close as it could come to one.

Intro: Work and life circumstances have conspired against these past two weeks and kept me from doing any thing else on time.  As a result, the preview is only getting up now.  It does not help that this is Indiana week and the anticipated threat level is green.

Factoids: Ohio State has won 15 straight Big Ten road games, 2 short of the all time league record.  The last loss was the 17-10 loss at Penn State in 2005. Michigan owns the record of 17 straight road wins from 1988-1992 … Ohio State has won 14 straight over the Hoosiers dating to 1988 … The Buckeyes have back-to-back shutouts for the first time since 1996 … Indiana hasn’t been within single digits of Buckeyes since 1993, a span of 12 games … Hoosiers run defense ranks second in the Big Ten, trailing only Penn State, at 94.2 yards per game.

What the Internut is saying:

• Mr. Sassy Ballot gives you some players to watch tonight.
• Indiana has a lot of work to do if they are going change history tonight.
• The Crimson Quarry gives us a brief look at tonight’s matchup.
• Today is the biggest day in Big Ten Network history.  If they say so.
• Other, more punctual, blogs have previews: 11W, WWAHT, O-Zone

Weekly rant: It may come as surprise to you, but I tend to think highly of Ohio State’s football program.  And that goes for the entire program - the team, coaches, and stadium.  Especially Ohio Stadium.  The problem is, it does not appear that it is getting the respect it deserves.  It is on the National Register of Historic Places.  So, why is the field painted like a high school stadium (or Indiana’s Memorial Stadium)?  I dislike the synthograss, but I can live with it.  But why not paint the plastic so that it looks good?  Like Florida State, with color up to the 25-yard lines?  If it is good enough for the Rose Bowl, it should be good enough for Ohio Stadium. And, is it true that there is no gray on the field because it cost extra?  So all we get is red, white, and black trim?  Ick.  Ohio State athletics generate revenue in excess of $100M.  Take a little extra and give the field a paint job worthy of the best college football stadium in the country and a building on the NRHP.  I will save the horrific scoreboard announcing for another week.  [/rant]

Ohio State offense v. Indiana defense: Don’t be fooled.  The Hoosiers are currently 4th in the league in total defense, but their average is actually closer to the 10th place team than the first place team.  While it is certainly possible that Indiana is better than usual, they didn’t exactly crush their way through a horrendous non-conference schedule.  They struggled in each game against Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron.  Pryor should have no problem throwing against an IU defense that gave up 4 pass plays of 25+ yards last week (that is half of Michigan’s season total).  If the receivers are as available as the statistics suggest, Saine should have plenty of room to roam.  If he gets 17 or more carries, he will be the first Ohio State running back to gain 100 yards rushing this season (I cannot believe I typed that before week 5!).  Indiana did allow four scoring drives of 60 yards or more last week.

Indiana offense v. Ohio State defense: The Hoosiers are getting a lot of credit because of their close, high-scoring loss to Michigan but things were not good before that game.  The Hoosiers scored on 7 of their 14 possessions last weekend with another ending in a missed FG. Not bad, but there were too many field goals mixed in.  In fact, Indiana is last in red zone touchdown percentage.

IU has a semi-veteran offensive line, but Chappell will still get tons of pressure all night.  Even without Kurt Coleman, Ohio State’s nickel package will be more than enough to slow down Indiana’s spread attack.  Ohrian Johnson has been elevated to the nickel back although do not be surprised if you see 3 cornerbacks - Chekwa, Torrence, Amos - in there at the same time.

(Quick) Key matchups: Adams & Shugarts & Miller v. Jammie Kirlew & Greg Middleton.   I am thinking the same thing you are: how good could Indiana’s DEs be?  Well, these two are supposed to be decent and this is the first conference road game for Ohio State’s first-time starters.

Why Ohio State will win: Chappell is statue in the backfield and redshirt freshman Darius Willis is not keeping Heacock and Fickell awake at night. Ohio State will get an early lead and force the Hoosiers to throw more often.  Even down a defensive captain, that should be a task the Buckeye can handle.

“Have to have it” factor: 5 out of 10.  It only gets half up because I really want the all-time road wins records, which is totally achievable with Purdue up next.

Final thought: If you are looking for an fun and easy football road trip, Bloomington is your destination.  The drive is easy, the likelihood of a win is high, there is a small percentage of asshole fans, and the girls are generally regarded as high caliber. Really, it is a no brainer.

Intro: Let me walk you through the past week of my life, sponsored by Kubler Ross.

SUNDAY MORNING - MONDAY MORNING
Denial: “This is bullsh*t! We stopped them on fourth and goal! Surely, they are still going to review that play, retroactively revoke the touchdown and provide Ohio State with a first-of-its-kind, ex-post facto win,  thus ushering in a new era of college football where every team has an assistant video assistant and a lobbyist.  Didn’t we block a punt and kick a 53-yard FG?!  Arrrrggggghhhhhhhhh!!!”

MONDAY EVENING - TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Anger: As I scribbled “I hate everything” on a spreadsheet during an early morning budget meeting on Tuesday a member of the marketing team shot me an odd look and scooted her chair an extra 6 inches away from me.  It was that moment I realized my natural bodily scent had shifted from musk to rage.  I also heard murmurs around the office that I had changed my email signature to “They need an F@#*ing offensive coordinator”; I can neither confirn nor deny that statement.  By Tuesday’s drive home, though, I was feeling better.  Hence…

TUESDAY EVENING - WEDNESDAY MORNING
Bargaining: “Okay, as long as Ohio State wins their remaining games, gets back into the title hunt, and builds towards a huge 2010, I can live through this.  That and Pryor learns to pass.  Oh yeah, and Tressel realizes that he wants to spend more time with his family and hires an offensive coordinator.  In fact, who wouldn’t make this deal?  Yeah, 2010 is going to be sweet!”  [Stage right (voice): Honey, are you okay?  You have been arguing with an open refrigerator for a couple of minutes now.  "Beer me!" Exit stage left (me)]

WEDNESDAY EVENING - THURSDAY EVENING
Depression/Acceptance:  These really came on together.  You know, “This sucks, I guess I am always going to feel this way.”  “Is it only Wednesday?  It feels like Cooper’s first season.”  The depression mercifully waned sometime during my sleep Wednesday night.  Thursday’s unopposed “Acceptance” arrived wrapped in purple euphoria (sans glitter) and involved my delivery of many unannounced fist pumps accompanied by the extremely descriptive “Rock!“ I felt 10-years old again (in a good way).

By the time I exited stage 5 on Thursday evening I was lucky to have a job, my right shoulder hurt from the aforementioned fist pumping, but I was totally calm about this game.  Think about it.  The atmosphere will be sterile as it is not on Toledo’s campus (inexplicably), and Buckeyes’ fans are not traveling in droves to attend what they most likely view as a crappy away game on one the few remaining nice Saturday afternoons.  I bet, “I’m playing golf instead” is a common response to inquiries regarding game attendance this week.  Ohio State may be mentally exhausted and thinking ahead to Illinois and revenge on the Juicer.  Meanwhile, the ghost of the undead Tom Amstutz will be patrolling the Toledo sideline, and taking up most of it by the way, while the new TU head coach is looking to prove himself against his friend and former boss. Many are saying the Buckeyes are ripe to get picked off this weekend!  That cannot happen.

What the world wide internoodle is saying:

• These teams have played once before when the greatest Buckeyes’ team I have seen won 49-0
• Orson and Holly are taking Toledo and the points
• Doug Lesmerises attempts to wear his voice-of-reason hat for once; he also ranks Ohio State 25th.  Really?
• Other previews: Ozone, 11W, The Rocket Report

Weekly rant: I am so sick of fans managing expectations before every single game.  When did every Ohio State fan turn into a Lou Holtz?  Last week it was “I just hope we don’t get blown out.”  Ick.  This week I am hearing people, “Toledo is pretty good.  Have you seen that quarterback?  They run the spread!”  Bull and shit.

I even saw one blog said that Toledo “brings it” on defense.  Oh really?  They bring it to the tune of allowing 500 yards per game against below average competition.  They surrendered 315 rushing yards to Purdue (not a typo).  Remember Purdue?  Basketball on grass?  Do you know the last time Purdue gained that many running yards?  Too long ago for stats.  They turned around and gave up 356 passing yards to Colorado.  Nice.

Listen everyone, Toledo lost 52-31 to the Boilermakers and were down 45-14 in the third quarter.  This is Ohio effing State.  You need to expect to beat Purdue 52-21, let alone Toledo.   I know the Vegas line is only Ohio State -20, but that does not mean the Buckeyes should not be up by 35 at some point in this game.  I don’t care what the final score is, it’s the total destruction that counts.  It is time for the Buckeyes to start breathing fire.  It is time for them to start decapitating opposing teams.  It is time for them to impose their will on the other team.

I am not sure where and how this attitude from fans developed but I swear it is beginning to permeate the team.  Expect to win!  Expect to dominate!  Stop setting the bar so low.  [/rant]

OSU Offense v. Toledo Defense: This should be like shooting putty in a barrel.  Herron and Saine should look like LDT.  Pryor should look like Vince Young.  Even the tight ends should catch passes.  I don’t care if Cordle is out the offensive line can never struggle, not for one play.  250 rushing yards is a must.  Pryor’s completion percentage needs to hover near 70-percent.

If the Buckeyes do not gain 500 yards this weekend, the entire university should be embarrassed.

Toledo Offense v. OSU Defense: The defense looks like it may be top 5 by the end of the year.  Heyward is gaining on unblockable. The front four was crazy good against a very talented USC offensive line.  Even Chekwa, who I have dogged, looked good as he bottled up Damian Williams most of the night. Tootsie Rolle is on fire.  Sure, these dink and dunk spread attacks have given Ohio State some minor heartburn in the past and the defense did poor its soul onto the field last Saturday night, which would suggest the opportunity for a letdown.  I don’t see it.

There is no point in talking about matchups or schemes in the game.  Ohio State should win every single battle tomorrow.  No questions asked.

(Quick) Key Matchups: Pryor v. his shoulder pads.  Unless he is unable to get into his uniform for some reason this should be his greatest statistical game by far.  Nothing else even makes sense.

“Have to have it!” factor (a.k.a. Alarmist factor): 1 out of 10.  I fully expect a thrashing in the CBS.

Final line: Ohio State will be mentally ready but Pryor needs to engineer some easy points and the defense cannot rest on their laurels.  He will and they won’t.