Title Game Breakdown

You do not have to look hard for a breakdown of this game. Every media outlet has provided one or will do so in the coming hours. From ESPN to CBSsportsline to you local papers, all have proffered thoughts and commentary. For me, it's hard to beat SMQ's week long look at the game and I'd be ashamed - having a blog and all - of not getting my thoughts on electronic paper, too. Nothing else to do but wait wait...and read more breakdowns er...podcasts. (Sorry Orson I couldn't participate)

Ohio State Offense vs. Florida Defense: I spoke about this specific match-up earlier in the week in the Battle of the Blogs feature. There is little question that this is strength against strength. Ohio State is 6th in the country in scoring offense and, conversely, Florida holds the same spot in the scoring defense category.

While Ohio State boasts a plethora of offensive firepower, Florida has a defense geared to take much of our effectiveness away. Reggie Nelson is perhaps the best safety in the country and much like finding the Mike linebacker, Ohio State’s offense will need to know where Nelson is lined up at all times. If Nelson doesn’t make the play, there’s a good chance linebackers Brandon Siler or Earl Everett will. Getting our offensive line to the second level on running downs will be key to neutralize Siler and Everett. Florida does not boast impressive sack or tackle for loss numbers but their overall statistics are impressive.

I look for Ohio State to counter with a gameplan that is unique to Florida. As has been a theme all year, Coach Tressel has worked formations based on tendencies of the defense. We will spread out Florida and work from the shotgun. When down and distance allows, the offensive staff will run power after power. If we see Doug Datish and Steve Rehring pulling quite a bit, the game should be going in our favor. I would not be shocked to see Ted Ginn have a big role as some whispers have been heard that UF will match up their best corner on Anthony Gonzalez. Every team we have played this year does all they can to slow us down but our balance (see graphic) and versatility make it very difficult.

Most of all, we need to play clean. No penalties that erase big gains and snaps that actually hit Troy in the numbers (are you listening Doug Datish?).

Edge:
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Florida Offense vs. Ohio State Defense: One of the bigger misconceptions about Florida is they struggle on offense. That is really not the case, especially the last half of the year with the emergence of Percy Harvin and others. In fact, Florida actually averages more yards per play than Ohio State (6.5 to 6.3).

For such a potent attack, Florida’s issue has been is converting yardage into points. It’s an odd truth because the Florida offense oozes talent and playmakers. Senior quarterback Chris Leak has five main receivers he throws to. All of them have more than 25 catches with Dallas Baker and Andre Caldwell leading way with 56 and 55 respectively. It could be argued that UF’s offense is somewhat like Ohio State’s in that they believe your 3rd and 4th defensive back isn’t going to be as good as their 3rd and 4th (and sometimes 5th) receiver.

Urban Meyer’s rushing attack is a little unique as well. In the past, it has been a chore to churn out yardage (last year only averaged 3.9 yds/carry) via running the ball. Enter Percy Harvin and a reformed DeShawn Wynn. Harvin does a little bit of everything for Florida but he has really become a major threat rushing the ball (11.3 yrds/carry) on 36 attempts. He has over 200 yards in his last two games, on top of his receiving prowess. Wynn has dropped weight and has carried the load for the Gators. His 124 rushing attempts lead the team and he averages an effective 5.3 yards per carry.

Florida will stress the Ohio State defense and cause problems. Meyer is on record as saying he wants to ‘bother’ the opposing defense. He’ll do that with his base plays and then sprinkle in his trusty bag of trick plays. Ohio State sports an experienced front four a defense that leads the nation in scoring defense (see graphic above - mislabeled "Total Defense" - no time to change it). But, I sense the Gators have a slight edge.

Edge:
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Special Teams: Florida’s field goal kicker has been awful this year. Now that I have just said that, Murphy’s Law will take effect and Chris Hetland will go 4-4 with a long of 50. For our sake, let’s hope not. Hetland is 1-9 on any field goal longer than 30 yards. Ouch.

Having said that, the Gators do have an excellent punter and excellent coverage units. Their return game is dangerous as well though they have no returns for touchdowns. Watch for blocked punts or field goals. We all saw how their South Carolina game finished.

Ohio State, on the flip side, is a special teams machine. Return units are dangerous and effective. Coverage units are nearly equal to that of Florida and we have a field-goal kicker who has missed only three field goals all year. Very slight edge to Ohio State overall.

Edge:
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Intangibles: (Edited based on Mike B.'s comments) The pressure is on Ohio State. We cannot hide from that fact. We are the team trying to go wire to wire ranked #1 in the country. We are the team that has the Heisman Trophy winner and the added burden that carries. We are a team attempting to beat our third #2 ranked team in the same season. However, we do walk into this game with much more game experience and a staff that is no stranger to BCS or National Title game. Huge factors for sure.

Florida is gunning for us and has absolutely nothing to lose. Once facing an outside shot at even getting to the title game, they now have the opportunity to prove they're the best. Urban Meyer is his second year at Florida and has his team in the title game. Eerily this harkens one back to Jim Tressel and Pete Carroll - two coaches who won it all in their second campaign at their respective schools.

Earlier I had this category favoring Florida; I now call this a Push. Our experience will off set their desire to prove themselves.

Edge:
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Coaching: If there is one thing that bothers Ohio State fans, it’s the minimization of Jim Tressel’s coaching skills. Last year, after learning we were going to face Notre Dame, we heard nothing but how Charlie Weis would dissect our defense.

The exact same thing has happened this year. Meyer’s offensive attack will be polished to the point of making our defense play on rollerskates. Look at all the time he has to prepare, they say. We know how last year turned out and it’s about time for a little respect for Tressel and his preparation skills. One of these coaches has multiple national titles to his credit. One is trying to get his first.

Edge:
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No need for a prediction. You can see who I think it going to win by simple math. No matter what happens, what a ride it has been. Good luck to both teams. Now, spout off in a mature way letting me know your thoughts. Comments, critiques and unashamed homerism highly encouraged.