The Path to New Orleans

Weird how college football works. The Rose Bowl is guaranteed for Ohio State but, if possible, we'd just rather bypass it altogether. Not that the Rose Bowl is some second rate option but Ohio State still harbors title hopes and rightfully so. That goal became a touch easier following our win in Ann Arbor and because of two important losses from teams ranked ahead. Oregon lost earlier in the week to unranked Arizona and Oklahoma went down to Texas Tech late Saturday. The shake up allowed Ohio State to move up to #5 in the latest BCS Rankings.

To state the obvious, there is still work to do. A lot, in fact, and the downside of this is our hope rests on the shoulders of others. We lost the opportunity to control our own destiny last week but we'll feel no shame battling another one loss team for the championship (unless Kansas wins out and even then, we still won't feel bad). In order for that to happen, there are some key points to remember:

• We only need to get to #2 in the BCS.
• Kansas and Missouri play each other this coming weekend.
• The Big Twelve and the SEC have Championship games.

Before we move on any further, it's important to look at the schedules:

• LSU: Arkansas, at SEC Championship Game
• Kansas: Missouri, Big 12 Championship Game
• WVU: Connecticut, Pitt
• Missouri: at Kansas, Big 12 Championship Game
• Ohio St: In the Clubhouse

Like I said earlier, either Kansas or Missouri will be out of the picture next week. The winner will advance to the Big 12 Championship game to face, hopefully, Oklahoma. I say hopefully because the Sooners present the best chance of knocking off the opponent, be it Kansas or Missouri. And, Oklahoma will almost certainly have QB Sam Bradford back after missing most of the Tech game with a concussion.

This is relevant because it gives basis for what needs to happen following Ohio State's rise to #4 in the BCS. In a nutshell, the Buckeyes need any two of the following three (HT: Chris Stassen):

• Big XII out. Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State to get to the Big 12 Championship game, and then beats the Kansas-Missouri winner.
• Louisiana State Loss. LSU loses in the SEC title game, or to Arkansas the week before the title game.
• West Virginia loss. West Virginia loses to either UConn or Pitt.

Admittingly, the probability on this is low but it's not all that absurd. In fact, I think it's quite likely at least one will happen. There has been talk by some (Mark May) that if Arizona State wins out, they could find themselves back in the thick of things. To squash this from happening, we probably should root for USC to win their remaining games.

It's a lot to process and whatever the case, we're off the a BCS bowl for the fifth time in seven years on JT. More on Michigan tomorrow.