Taking a fifteen-dollar prop bet on Ohio State to get to the national title game versus a five loss SEC team and lose.

A couple of the rankings are in need of updating (CFN and ESPN), but when you are dealing with an inexact science’s second cousin, what is a few months? The other three were composed after the conclusion of spring practice and two after Perrilloux’s fate was decided.

If there is one motif to this incomplete slate of predictions, it is that amateur pollsters agree that Ohio State is going to be very good, and that it will be against most fan and analyst’s wishes. Sunday Morning Quarterback said it best when describing the level of disdain that will and, already is, focused on Ohio State.

Stewart Mandel’s post-spring rankings avoid mention of the public sentiment while giving us a perfunctory breakdown of rosters and returning starters. But Dennis Dodd could not resist. Sure, he ranks the Buckeyes #1, but you cannot help but wonder why after he pans the Buckeyes schedule and takes a shot at Todd Boeckman. Seriously, you would think he lost a bet with the way he describes the Buckeyes.

The Sporting News and College Football News each take a more cautious approach, recognizing the contempt, yet avoiding ownership in the cause. Impartiality becomes them.

Finally, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach does not come right out and mention the Buckeyes perceived inferiority but the line, “Ohio State is good enough to go through the Big Ten schedule unbeaten, but …” belies his otherwise neutral words.

The upshot of SMQ’s piece, and my imperfect composition, is that Ohio State will be held to a higher standard – a standard that always exists in the future. Regardless of the Buckeyes performance each week, many around the country will project their imminent demise, i.e., “They’re good, but they cannot beat [insert SEC team here].”

AP voters and the coaches will rank Ohio State highly at the beginning of the season, but given the chance to demote them, the Buckeyes downward slide would most likely be permanent and fatal. Because of the recent past and public outcries, one loss may be too much for the Buckeyes and pollsters to overcome. The assertion that the entire regular season is a playoff may never be truer for any team.

As you can see from the chart, Ohio State typically held their opponents well below the average passing numbers. Only Washington and Wisconsin fared better than averaged.

Yet, the Buckeyes only faced four opponents ranked in the top half of national passing stats (Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, LSU) but each one was held down statistically speaking.

This season: The defensive backfield was paid more attention than any position this spring. For all the wrong reasons. It seems that any discipline has been, and will be, handled internally and any lasting effects remain to be seen. I will go out on a limb and say that Donald Washington, Eugene Clifford and Jamario O’Neal will be available for the Youngstown State game on August 30, 2008, barring any further disciplinary setbacks.

That undefined discipline aside, the personnel in the defensive backfield is identical. Jenkins and Washington are penciled in at the corners, while Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell seem certain to start at the safety positions.

You would think, naturally, that with all four starters returning there would be no mystery to the depth chart. You are probably right, too. But I cannot help wondering about that nickel package in which the Buckeyes so often find themselves. (Considering the passing rankings above, I find it amazing a need for five DBs arises.)

I know the main goal of that defensive formation is to get more corners on the field to cover a spread formation. Typically, however, teams running that formation throw short passes based out of the shotgun and using the read option. Why not play the traditional 4-3-4 defense, replace a safety with another corner and play a speedy LB alongside Laurinaitis and Freeman? Freeman and Terry (or even Rolle) can cover the flats; Jenkins, Washington and Chekwa can man up on the WRs; and Russell can play center field. Laurinaitis and the line are there to clean up any running play.

Another reason I struggle with the nickel formation is that cushion the corners give. Do you guys notice this? It drives me crazy. One of the benefits of being as talented as Ohio State is that you do not have to cover for very long. The front four and blitzing linebackers ensure that opposing quarterbacks are not hanging out in the pocket. I think some press coverage and disguised blitzes (see Steve’s comment yesterday) would make this defense even better. I like the idea of having three corners on the field at the same time, and when they play more traditional, play-action teams (read USC) they can replace Chekwa with Coleman to get additional run support. I do not see the need to be in the nickel very often.

Starters/reserves: As for the two-deep, it looks something like this:

That does not mean that Eugene Clifford or James Scott cannot sneak in there. No, but the competition in front of them is very tough.

Tressel may not catch Woody in Big Ten titles. He would have to stick around for another 15 or so seasons. But he is leading win percentage by a good bit and is leading the Buckeyes to a BCS bowl virtually every year.

Look for the college football gods to fast track Tressel’s canonization once he retires.

In other Hall of Fame news, Chris Spielman and Jim Otis were not selected for this year’s class. For a look at the criteria used, check out page 3. Better luck next year guys.

In other gambling related news, Buckeye Commentary has its money on Z Fortune to win and a trifecta of Monba, Gayego, Big Brown. Wish us luck.

We previewed the NFL Draft in historical terms late last week. With the 2008 version of the NFL Draft in the books we can briefly describe what transpired over the last two days.

Most impartial observers expected three, possibly four, former Buckeyes to be drafted this weekend. Gholston was a Top 10 lock, Barton was a certain second-day pick, and Larry Grant was likely to get picked up late in the proceedings. Even Dionte Johnson had some, albeit small, hope of being drafted. Here is how the two days unfolded for the former Buckeyes.

Starting at the top, Gholston went 6th overall to the New York Jets. Several mock drafts had predicted the Patriots would snatch Gholston up at No. 7. As it turned out, Mangini and the Jets had designs on the Ohio State sack leader. Despite being ranked as the 3rd best DE by ESPN, many speculate that Gholston will project as an OLB in the Jets 3-4 scheme.

An incidental benefit of the Jets pick? You may get to see more photos like the one above if Chad Henne wins the job in Miami. Only in different colors. Sweet, huh?

So far, so good. Right?

Not if you were Kirk Barton. The scouts at the Worldwide Leader had ranked Barton as the 15th best offensive tackle. That should have landed Barton in the late 5th round or early 6th round. Yet, Kirk was still waiting for a phone call with 6 picks to go. Adding to the intrigue was the run on tackles in the first round (7 were drafted in the first 26 picks), which seemed to bode well for Barton’s chances to be drafted higher up the board. Then a funny thing happened; 13 other tackles were drafted between picks 33 through 246. The Chicago Bears ultimately drafted Barton (their sixth Buckeye since 1990) with the 40th pick in the Seventh Round (247 overall) six picks shy of Mr. Irrelevant.

In the meantime, Larry Grant was drafted by San Francisco (the 49ers second Buckeye since 1990) at the beginning of the Seventh Round (214 overall). In fact, if you are going by the ESPN position rankings (and I know how you all love the gang from Bristol) Grant actually moved up. He was projected as the 19th best OLB and actually was the 17th drafted.

Dionte Johnson went undrafted. Johnson will most likely be signed as a free agent and given the chance to make a roster. Given the decreasing role of fullbacks and Johnson’s uneven performance during ’07, it seems like a long shot for him to make a 53 man roster.

Former Buckeyes playing along the front four beat the average by more than one full season at 5.6 seasons per defensive lineman. I am not sure what the average is for defensive lineman is league-wide, but defensive line is one of the more physically grueling positions on the field. Constant double teams and chip blocks by RBs take their toll. Of course, ending up at the bottom of every pile and other players rolling up on their knees makes for shorter careers as well.

Wide receivers placed second with an average of five seasons played.

How well did they play?

As we have discussed, Ohio State sends tons of talented players to the league. So, you would think that a handful of them end up in Honolulu at the conclusion of each season. If you did think that, you would be wrong.

Of the 455 seasons played, only 23 of those seasons have ended with a Pro Bowl appearance. That is a 5% conversion rate. At first glance that rate seems brutally low. But, then again that is more than one player per season. I am still undecided on what that %5 rate truly signifies. What do you think? Good, bad, or typical?

Interestingly, 18% of all seasons in this span played by offensive lineman resulted in a Pro Bowl appearance. Orlando Pace accounted for the majority of these seasons (7), while LeCharles Bentley (2), and Korey Stringer (1) provided the other Pro Bowl seasons.

Running backs had the second highest conversion rate at 11%, with Eddie George (6) and Robert Smith (2) producing the entire total. Quarterbacks, linebackers, and special teams players have not netted a Pro Bowl appearance in the last 17 years.

Most surprising is the dearth of Pro Bowl appearances by defensive backs. Only Shawn Springs (2) and Nate Clements (1) have made it. How was Antoine Winfield been snubbed over all of these years?

Draft Update: Vernon Gholston will soon be adding to these totals, as he was drafted 6th overall by the New York Jets today. Because the jets run a 3-4 scheme Gholston will most likely be playing from a two-point stance instead of the down position he occupied at Ohio State.

Troy Smith did not exactly receive a vote of confidence today as the Ravens spent their first round pick on Joe Flacco, QB from Delaware. To add insult to injury, Flacco’s alma mater wears virtually identical helmets (and uniforms) to that team up north.

Year by year

Let’s start with the chronological breakdown. Since the 1990 NFL Draft, 104 Ohio State players have been drafted.

Two years stand out right away - 1998 and 2004 - for opposite reasons. No Buckeyes were drafted in spring ’98, which in turn led to the best Ohio State in the last 20 years, in my opinion. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come this season as the 2008 NFL Draft is sure to see a low number of Buckeyes drafted (3 or 4). The last two times the Buckeyes had a low draft turnout the following season produced a juggernaut (the aforementioned 1998 and 2006).

In 2004, fourteen Buckeyes were drafted – a record for any college. Between the ’03 and ’04 drafts, 21 players were drafted from Ohio State’s 2002 National Championship team.

Aside from the spike in 2004, the number of players drafted per year in the Cooper years versus the Tressel years is very similar. It is important to remember that Cooper recruited many of the players drafted after he left.

Where they went

Now that you know how many players were drafted each season, you are probably wondering what teams draft the Buckeyes. There is no Conference bias at play, with the split between the NFC (53%) and AFC (47%) very close.

But, the team-by-team breakdown is a little more interesting. In the NFC, the spread was fairly even with only four teams having drafted fewer than three Ohio State players in that span – San Francisco, Tampa Bay, and Washington each drafted only one player, while Detroit has not drafted any. (Memo to Matt Millen: Draft some Buckeyes, win some games.) Four teams – Dallas (7), Green Bay (6), New Orleans (6), and St. Louis (5) – have drafted more than four players.

The AFC breakdown is a little more lopsided. Seven AFC teams - Baltimore, Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Miami, New England, and Jacksonville - drafted two or fewer Buckeyes since 1990. Buffalo led the way with seven picks, including five defensive backs. Jacksonville has yet to select a former Ohio State footballer.

There does not seem to be any significant geographic trending either. Far flung teams like San Diego, Oakland, Dallas, and New Orleans have all drafted more players than Cincinnati and Cleveland. Of course, Detroit has not drafted any Ohio State players so perhaps that is evidence of a cultural bias. You can decide.

What they played

If you thought the Conference split was close, check out the breakdown between offense and defense.

If you plotted this information on a yearly basis you may see some trends, but a quick glance at our largest sample – 2004 – shows the same split. Of the fourteen draftees, eight played offense, six played defense.

I found a more specific drilldown by position interesting.

Obviously, there are more offensive linemen than any other offensive position on the field and I always felt as if OSU linemen were drafted in good numbers. So, I was particularly surprised when I saw that the number of wide receivers drafted easily outnumbered any other offensive position, including linemen. The WR category does include tight ends so that increases that category’s pure numbers, which help explain the discrepancy between WR and RB. But, to outpace every other position on offense was a shock.

Staying on the offensive side of the ball, it was surprised to see running backs drafted in equal numbers to offensive linemen. Again, the ratio is about 5-to-1.5 for OL, so that the draft ratio of 1-to-1 is a bit of a shock.

On defense, the numbers fell more in line with my mental projections. For many years, it seems like Ohio State defensive backs have flown off the shelves so I was not surprised it was the leading defensive category. I was a little surprised that 21 players had been drafted 18 years, but not stunned.

I think many people may be surprised to know that only two more linebackers than defensive linemen have been drafted over the past 18 years. Most folks, myself included, consider Ohio State a linebacker factory with good reason. Every season the Buckeyes seem to have a stud LB roaming the field. It is rarer for me to feel that way about the defensive linemen.

Check back tomorrow (or possibly tonight) for Part Two.

There is a 10% spread - .105 percentage points – from 1 to 10, with each team playing between 87 and 94 games.

A couple of peripheral conclusions jumped out: Boise State was tied for the top spot, the SEC had three teams in the Top 10, and Michigan was nowhere to be found (they were 12th). Otherwise, this chart is straight forward – wins and losses. Nothing more.

What happens when we take a closer look at the losses, though? The second chart is called the Victorious Opponent Win Percentage (VOW). It is a breakdown of the combined record and win percentage of each team’s victorious opponents. I simply added each of the records of victorious opponents for the years in which they defeated one of the top 10 teams. For a visual explanation, follow this link.

Oklahoma and LSU tied, which is unbelievable when you think about it. Far more interesting than the top two spots are the bottom two. I was certain Boise State would have the lowest percentage of the group. They play in the lowest quality conference and their strength of schedule is lower, year in and year out, than any other team on the list. So, how did USC finish last? One reason is that in 2001, USC lost six games. Those six opponents were a combined 41-29. But even if you take 2001 out of the equation, USC’s VOW only increases to .686 (72-33), good for only 8th place. After watching Southern Cal pummel so many quality opponents, it is easy to forget that they lose to some bad teams. In the last two seasons alone, USC VOW is only .577 (30-22).

Other points of interest include the three SEC teams placing 2 through 4 in VOW and the significant gap between Virginia Tech and Miami.

In the final chart, the rankings were calculated by multiplying a team’s winning percentage by 2, and adding the VOW. For example, Ohio State’s winning percentage of .820 was multiplied by 2 for 1.64 with a VOW of .722 added for 2.362. I fully understand that this is a crude way to look at success. I would entertain adding value for national title or other factors. But I created this on short notice and did not have the time.

And, the winner is (drum roll, please):

Texas. Although, as I mentioned before, it is likely that Oklahoma would have claimed the top spot if I had included 2000. Otherwise, the chart would stay the same.

Five teams moved up from the original rankings, three dropped, and two stayed the same. I was surprised to see the Longhorns and Sooners sitting #1 and #2. The Big 12 is not often mentioned in the conversation of best conferences and perhaps, this benefited Texas and Oklahoma. Because they dominate the league, the winner of the Red River Shootout typically wins at least 10 games.

Other interesting tidbits include Ohio State losing to the eventual national champion in three straight seasons (2005-2007), Georgia being defeated by LSU twice in one season, and USC and Miami each losing to four teams with sub-.500 records - the most of any Top 10 team.

I am sure you can poke several holes in my research and analysis, and I am aware of several of its shortcomings. This is not meant to be an exhaustive, statistical analysis, but rather a nice discussion piece for one of the eternal debates in college football.

In other, less exciting news, the Ohio State basketball Buckeyes lost a key player. Kosta Koufos is declaring for NBA Draft. Koufos informed the Canton Repository this afternoon by, of all things, text message.

Some publications have reported that Koufos is a first-round pick and borderline lottery guy. I cannot say that I see that, but I am not NBA scout. He did earn Most Outstanding Player award in last month’s NIT while averaging over 18 ppg, so the potential is there.

Are the Buckeyes worse for having lost Koufos? Maybe. His experience would have been valuable but B.J. Mullens will most likely be able to replace almost all of his on-court production. Not to mention William Buford.

Despite the defection, Buckeye Commentary wishes Kosta good luck in Greece …er, the NBA.

For all of his talk about competition, the Trojans under Carroll have never gone into a summer without a designated starting quarterback who ultimately started the season opener. Carroll inherited Carson Palmer before the 2001 season, and he and former offensive coordinator Norm Chow selected Matt Leinart as the starter on the eve of the season-ending spring scrimmage in 2003. Booty missed nearly all of spring practice in 2006 because of back surgery, but he was regarded as the starter going into the summer. Now, Sanchez will have the responsibility of organizing and running summer workouts as USC prepares for training camp and its opener at Virginia.

“He's got to get stronger, improve his lower base and not get moved around as easily. I think he's got to become a better rebounder and defender. If you're coming out early, you'd better be ready to make an impact on that league, and he's not prepared to do that yet.''

The Ohio State defense improved against the rush on per play and per game bases. I think the Buckeyes faced higher quality rushing teams in 2006, but I view these statistics as equivalent over then last two season. But what about 2003 and 2005? Was the talent level that much better in those years? The 2003 yards per game stat is ridiculously low.

Curiously, tackles for loss were down for the defensive line last year, even though they were up for the entire defense.

I fin this strange. There are certainly instances where the linemen occupy blockers so the linebackers can make plays, but I never got that sense last season. In fact, there were times were I questioned who the consistent members of the front four were beyond Gholston. I also did not get the impression that OSU employed that many run blitzes. This number could also be reflective of the quality of the linebacking corp and their ability to read plays.

The same trend occurred with sacks. Up for the team, down for the line. This is even more surprising when you realize that Gholston had such a huge season and that Heacock did not call as many blitzes as most fans would like.

There are many small explanations for this trend, but the stats are the stats, and I think you should have them. Which leads us to the fall of ’08.

This season: With perennial backfield entrant Vernon Gholston headed to the League, what type of production should we expect from the D-Line this season: about the same, in my opinion. Obviously, the major play maker is gone, but the experience and the depth are much better because of the minimal losses along the two-deep. Whether the numbers improve in 2008 will depend largely on the schemes they run, but I think we can expect some improvement.

The starters: Lawrence Wilson is a serious talent. How well recovers from his broken leg remains to be seen, though. If he regains his previous form and his considerable potential, Gholston’s loss will be far less noticeable. At the other end is my personal favorite, Cameron Heyward. Does everyone else get the sense he is going to become a household (college football) name this season? I could go on and on, but if Heyward makes the traditional big leap between freshman and sophomore year, he is going to be scary. This pair is definitely under the radar nationally and should be a pleasant surprise for Buckeye Nation.

The tackles are exactly the same as last season, for better or worse. They are all serviceable, but I do not see a star in the group. Doug Worthington’s 6’7” frame is back to lad the group (would you believe he deflected exactly one pass last season?). Nader Abdallah, Dexter Larimore, and Todd Denlinger will also see a lot of playing time in the middles. Is one DT better than the others? If so, I cannot tell.

The reserves: We just discussed the main backup DTs. Garrett Goebel arrives this fall and could provide some support if he shows up in shape.

At defensive end, the depth chart is thin. With Alex Barrow’s departure, Robert Rose is the only viable backup option at DE this spring. Thaddeus Gibson may move down in the fall, and there are a couple other options as well, but none that are really enticing. Another opening game injury would be trouble. Willie Mobley may be able to help this fall.

“The absence of a contract with a specified number of years does not, however, imply any particular retirement date. We will review the status of the program at the end of the season, as we always do.”

If you prefer a more cerebral Joe Pa, check this out:

Buckeye Commentary wishes Joe well in his future endeavors (in advance).

What is that you say? You have not heard of Ohio State stars Friedman and Worthy? Then you need to watch Howard Griffith and let him fill you in on the Buckeyes in 2008 (sigh).

"I really don't mind, as long as he comes with the mind-set he's now Ohio State and he leaves the Michigan stuff at Michigan," Jenkins said. "If he is going to help us and come into the tradition, then by all means come ahead."