Our Predictions

We're breaking the mold here at Buckeye Commentary. I asked all of the contributing writers to pen some thoughts and prediction for the game. I add mine at the very bottom. Without further ado:

John Russell:
The last time Jim Tressel faced Les Miles in a bowl game, his Buckeyes were able to out-athlete Oklahoma State on their way to an easy victory. He will not have that luxury this time, as LSU is easily the most talented team OSU will face this season. The key to the Buckeyes' attack will be the ability of the offensive line, particularly on the interior, to give Todd Boeckman time to pass. If they succeed, Boeckman and his receivers have
2008 BCS Championship Logo
the ability to do some damage against the LSU secondary. However, if the pressure gets to Boeckman, Buckeye fans are all too familiar with what can happen (see: Illinois). The effective threat of the pass will only help Beanie Wells as he does the rest of the work to carry the Buckeye offense.

On defense, OSU should match up far better with LSU than they did Florida a year ago. LSU tends to feature a more traditional attack. While their athletes are very talented, they have not been quite as explosive as one might initially expect. For example, Early Doucet, widely regarded as one of the top senior WRs in the country, has in fact only averaged 9.5 yards per catch in what has been an injury plagued season. Jacob Hester, while a tough and hard-nosed runner, had only one run longer than 22 yards all season. If the Buckeyes can keep LSU from converting any big trick plays, they should at least be competitive in containing the LSU offense.

LSU has everything going for them in this game. The home crowd. A talented roster. Veteran leadership. A fiery coach. But the Buckeyes seem focused and ready for redemption. The prediction of an eternal optimist: 24-17 Ohio State.

Prediction: Ohio State 24-17

Sam Anderson:
When I watched LSU play earlier in the year I thought to myself, “we are two touchdowns better than that team.” I am not going to stray away from what I thought then. There is no better game strategist in college football than Jim Tressel.
It doesn’t help that the game is 80 miles away from LSU, however, with trips to Washington, Purdue, Penn State, and Michigan this team is prepared to play on the road. Also, is there any doubt that there will be 100,000 Buckeye fans making a pilgrimage to New Orleans in order to support Tressel and Crew?

Prediction: Buckeyes: 31-14

Massey:
Whether you like it or not, these teams are very even.   Since 2002, Ohio State is 66-10 (.868) and LSU is 63-15 (.807).  Each team has had great success in BCS Bowls (Ohio State 3-1, LSU 3-0), each with a Crystal Football on their mantle.  And, the last team to defeat each squad just got punished in their respective bowl game.  

So, what can I use to determine advantages in this game?  I will not bore you with OSU stats and player match ups.  If you are reading this, you know it all.  This time it is nothing scientific, just instinct.  There are a few thing that keep floating to the front of my mind.  The first makes me confident and nervous at the same time (and I imagine it does the same for LSU fans).  It's that gambler's streak that Miles seems to have passed along to the team.  They appear to be confident at all times and are willing to risk everything.  That is a great swagger to have but it can get you in trouble in a hurry.  In my mind, LSU's 11-2 is as close to being 13-0 as it is to being 7-5.  They were 12 for 15 on 4th down this season.  At first blush I say, "Wow, that is really impressive."  And, then I think, "Why do they have to go for it on 4th down so often?"  Because they are often losing late in games.  Of course, if they continue to be so successful on 4th down then the Buckeyes' defense is going to have a tough time getting off the field.  Still, I love Ohio State's chances if they have a fourth quarter lead in the game.  

Second, they are too careless.  Don't get me wrong, they are very talented, but they make a lot of mistakes.  Did you know that  LSU led the SEC in penalties with 113 for 844 yards on the season.  By contrast, Ohio State only had 65 for 491 yards.  With the way Tressel play field position, penalties can have a magnified effect on the game.  

Finally, what is going on with their red zone defense?  On the season, LSU's opponents were 30 for 35 in the red zone (86%) scoring 22 TDs (63%).  Yikes!  Their opponents' numbers are even more impressive when they were ranked opponents (14 for 16 for 12 TDs) and when LSU lost (11 for 11 for 9 TDs).  And, at home with the Death Valley crowd howling?  Their opponents were 15 for 16 for 12 TDs.  Goodbye Superdome home field advantage.  

There are hundreds of other factors I could focus on, but those are the three that keep coming up in my head.  In the end, a couple of costly penalties and a big stop by the Buckeyes' defense on 4th down will seal the victory.  

Prediction: Ohio State 21, LSU 18

Keith Courter:
The others have condensed it very nicely. The only thing I'll say is I'm excited and nervous and I can't help but think this time will be different.

Prediction: Ohio State 27-21

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Jai Lai Review: Pre-Draft Edition

Reports are out this week confirming what anyone savvy enough to read this blog has known for months: Mike Conley and Daequan Cook are staying in the NBA Draft.

Andy Katz’s early projections indicate that these losses (along with some guy named Oden) will keep the Buckeyes from being among the nation’s top teams. While it would have been nice to see what that trio could have done in an encore, their departures and future success are absolutely in the best long term interest of the program.

First Round Picks Since 1957
Ohio State basketball stands on the verge of accomplishing something for the first time in a generation: produce a first round pick. Ohio State hasn’t had a first round pick since Jimmy Jackson went #4 overall in the 1992 draft. This year, the Bucks are certain to land two and likely 3.

Think about that for a moment. It will have been 15 years between first round picks for a program with all the resources that Ohio State has to offer. The football team’s longest first round drought in the last 25 years? 2 years. The only other current Big 10 schools to get shut out of the first round over that same time period? Penn State and Northwestern. That is embarrassing company for a school with the basketball tradition Ohio State has, and it is reflective of the type of effort put forth by previous coaches in attracting top-flight talent with enough character to not implode upon arrival.

This was not always so. The 1980’s were good to the Buckeyes on draft day, producing 6 first round selections. Still, that was a long time ago in the sports world, and today’s kids (read: future recruits) do not cherish memories of Clark Kellog and Herb Williams like some of you may.

That is what makes Thad Matta’s recruiting thus far so very impressive; he has sold three consecutive classes of future NBA players on a vision. For the last 15 years, it has not been a given that one could go to Ohio State and become a future NBA lottery pick. Thad has convinced them Ohio State can, again, become a basketball powerhouse, both on the court and in the professional ranks. This trio took the lead on the court last year, and, as they go on to their various successes, they will continue to serve as extraordinary ambassadors for Ohio State to the next generation of hoopsters.

Oden, Conley, and Cook may have only been here a year, but their impact, and Thad’s, will be felt for a long time to come.
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New Column: Jai Lai Review

(Buckeye Commentary effectively doubles in size today. John Russell will periodically give his views on Buckeye related items from his luscious SoCal region. He's good or I wouldn't have asked him to join up. Give him a hardy welcome in the comments below or his email)

Allow myself to introduce, myself: It is with great pleasure that I have accepted an offer from Keith to become a regular contributor to Buckeye Commentary. I truly consider it a privilege, as I have always been a big fan of both his work and the readers’ insightful commentary.

As for my Buckeye credentials, I am a third generation alum of The Ohio State University. Despite being born and raised in Southern California, there was no other university that I could have ever imagined attending. There is just something about the Buckeye baby clothes and the Saturdays of one’s youth spent glued to the TV watching drubbings of Purdue & Co. that simply become addictive. It truly is a magical place, and I am proud to be affiliated with such a special university and a fan base as passionate and die-hard as Buckeye Nation.

After working in state government for awhile after graduation, I have since returned to Southern California for law school. But my heart remains in Ohio, and I remain a voracious reader and follower of all things Ohio State. As we go forward with this venture, please feel free to contact me via the comments or my email address above with any questions you may have, whether it be relating to Ohio State, USC’s fair-weather fan base, or the best places to get ice cream in any of Ohio’s four corners (e.g. Tom’s Ice Cream Bowl in Zanesville!)

What’s in a name? For those Buckeye fans older than me, you may recognize the name of this column as that of the famous old Columbus dining establishment located where the Buckeye Hall of Fame Café now stands. Still, you may ask: Why name a column on Ohio State sports after a restaurant?

As a child, my grandfather, the first John Russell to graduate from Ohio State (50 years to month before his grandson), would take me to the Jai Lai or its successor and fill my head with stories of how Woody Hayes would come in after games, have his table open and waiting for him, and effectively hold court discussing among friends the game that had just passed, the week ahead, or whatever else may happen to be on his mind. Now, I have never been certain whether these “tableside chats” in fact occurred or were instead the type of legendary tale a grandfather tells his young grandson. But the memory is a fond one, and these “chats” are a model for what I envision and hope this column becomes – a weekly opportunity to discuss and analyze the topics of the week gone by, the week to come, and whatever else may be on my mind or yours.

Until next time: I promise my next column and each one thereafter will be far more substantive. For now, know that I am very enthused about joining this wonderful site, and I greatly look forward to sharing my thoughts and hearing yours on the one thing that brings each of us here together, The Ohio State University.

Until next time, GO BUCKS!
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