Phil Steele Dashes Buckeye Hopes

The weather was beautiful, the US Open was on the tube and, in between some golf of my own, I was reading a little more from the college football Bible. For the uninitiated, that would be the 2006 version of the Phil Steele College Football Preview. The weekend was going swimmingly. That is until I read page 308 and article titled Draft Day Party Hangover. Eh, weekend no longer so good.

Steele does this article every year for his mag but it resonates more than ever for Buckeye fans. Essentially, his draft day hangover is a system whereby he awards points to a team based on the round their NFL draftees were taken. For instance, players taken in Round 1 gain 7 points, Round 2 five points and so on all they way to just a single point for 6th and 7th round selections. The more a team loses especially early in the draft, the higher the overall score. Ohio State comes out on top this year with a total of 49 points (remember this number). The next closest team is USC with 44 and then FSU and Miami with 39 and 38, respectively.

Now, Steele calls this the hangover effect for a reason and this is where things turn sour. After a team experiences heavy losses to the NFL, they almost invariably have a weaker record the following year - regardless of who returns and the experience they bring. To go one further, over the last 9 years there have been only 10 teams who earned 35 or more points. Of those 10, not one equaled or better their record from the previous season. For us and the 2006 team, that would mean zero chance at a National Title. The same for USC, FSU and Miami. Fairly sobering stuff.

That said, statistics can be massaged to fit just about an theory. So, I ask, do you assign any credence to this or just chalk it up to coincidence?