By now, you have read the litany of reasons why Texas would be foolish not to join the Big Ten. Sure, it seems a little premature and the Big Ten has, in fact, stated that they are looking for recommendations regarding expansion over the next 12-18 months. Commissioner Delaney recently discussed the league’s expansion agenda and Barry Alvarez said that the Longhorns are not on the list of initial candidates. Despite the repudiations from Delaney and Alvarez regarding an imminent expansion, the topic has been a big topic of discussion at dinner tables in the Midwest ever since the Texas rumor was floated out there.
I am not terribly interested in discussing whether or not Texas should join, or how much money the new league would generate from television contracts. We all know that Big Ten expansion is a money grab: add a 12th team (or perhaps more), stage a conference championship game, and count the new piles of cash that flow in. Alvarez is not shy about admitting that fact.
I do not object to Big Ten expansion but I think it can be about more than money. If the Big Ten wants to be as or more relevant than every other conference they should innovate in the way that they integrate any additional team(s).
First, we need to recognize some truths about the Conference. To this point in Big Ten history the entire league is about these two teams and the season-ending matchup. For the vast majority of the League’s history, not much else has mattered in the conference. Seriously. Sorry Iowa, Wisconsin, and even Penn State.
This truth presents some immediate quandaries. You cannot split Ohio State and Michigan up into different divisions because you risk having them play two weeks in a row (the final regular season week and then imagined Big Ten Championship Game). You cannot place them in the same division, either. That would only ensure that The Game is at best for the opportunity to play for the conference title. The idea that Ohio State and Michigan will never play again with the conference title on the line makes me ill.
If the Big Ten wants to expand and dominate the college football landscape and, thus, the television markets, there is a solution that would create a more compelling 12 team league. The Big Ten could preserve The Game, get continued exposure through the first week of December, all while owning three different weekends during the season. How? Maintain one division, play a 10-game round-robin schedule with the elite teams playing the weekends each season.
Here is how it would work.
For the sake of blogging (and awesomeness), let’s assume Texas is the League’s twelfth team. The Conference should ensure that Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Texas all play during every season. No scheduling quirks. No years off. The Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions already play every season, so this would only mean adding Texas as a regularly scheduled opponent for each. And, to ensure the Big Ten gets maximum exposure out of these matchups, they need to play the same weekends every year - let’s say the last weekend of September, October, and November. This is what it would look like in 2010:
| Date | Matchups |
|---|---|
| September 25 | Ohio State v. Penn State Michigan v. Texas |
| October 30 | Michigan v. Penn State Texas v. Ohio State |
| November 27 | Ohio State v. Michigan Penn State v. Texas |
This is a win, win, win. On the field, the Conference would create a de facto tournament. The first of its kind. I realize that ties are theoretically possible, a 10-game regular decreases this risk because only one conference opponent is skipped.
From a television perspective, the Conference’s bargaining position with the WWL and ABC surely increases, while the Big Ten Network will most likely get to show a game involving one of the big 4 each weekend, which will continue to draw more viewers to the network. It is hard to imagine any conference could compete with those weekends on a yearly basis. As a result, on average, the Big Ten will own the major national viewing audience for at least three football weekends.
From a tradition standpoint, the League preserves the greatest rivalry in sports and give birth to some new ones without having to manufacture some ridiculous championship game affiliated with a soda company.
For me, and I think many Big Ten football fans, this solution would be great. What do you think? What potential pitfalls have I overlooked?
Happiness and optimism abound in for all things Ohio State football, and recently Tim May and Ken Gordon indulged a little bit in that revelry. Is all the talk about what is to come justified? Should you expect to be high-fiving your buddies this time in 2011?
Vegas thinks Ohio State’s odds are pretty good (at the moment). Let’s talk about it.
According to the gurus at Bodog, the Buckeyes’ are a better bet than everyone except Alabama. Other oddsmakers have slightly different interpretations, but they are all relatively similar. Here is the Bodog Top 15:
2011 BCS Championship Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Alabama | 3:1 |
| Ohio State | 13:2 |
| Oregon | 12:1 |
| Southern Cal | 12:1 |
| Oklahoma | 15:1 |
| Texas | 15:1 |
| Nebraska | 15:1 |
| Boise State | 15:1 |
| Virginia Tech | 18:1 |
| TCU | 18:1 |
| Iowa | 20:1 |
| Penn State | 20:1 |
| Miami | 20:1 |
| Florida | 25:1 |
| LSU | 25:1 |
Other odds of note:
Other Notable 2011 BCS Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Michigan | 50:1 |
| Notre Dame | 75:1 |
| Illinois | 100:1 |
| Michigan State | 100:1 |
| Northwestern | 125:1 |
The field’s odds: The Tide is an top obvious selection as they are bringing back a cadre of starters and stars - Ingram, Jones, McElroy - but I found it slightly surprising that Boise State was not considered to have as good or greater odds than Nebraska, Oklahoma, and/or USC, all teams that lost a significant amount of firepower, including a Heisman winner and future no. 1 draft choice. As you probably know, I am not supporter of the non-AQ field, but I thought the Broncos may have generated more gambling buzz.
Another surprise for me was Virginia Tech’s relatively low odds considering the league they play in sucks on ice, while they are returning a reputable amount of talent. Finally, Ohio State plays three teams with odds of 20:1. By my count, they are the only team to play such (theoretically) contending teams.
OSU odds: While, I share the optimism for 2010 and I agree with most fans that Pryor looked far, far better in the Rose Bowl than he did at any point during the year, we should be cautious about getting too carried away about him. I thought that the main difference in his Rose Bowl play was that he had time to operate, which I attributed to four things: (1) improved o-line play, (2) balanced play calling that kept Oregon’s defense guessing, (3) a small, average Oregon defensive front, and (4) Oregon’s coaches’ inability to adjust to OSU’s pass-heavy gameplan. Pryor’s mistakes in the Purdue debacle almost all came when he panicked under the pressure that Purdue brought. He only faced pressure in his face three or four times against the Ducks and, frankly, he still didn’t handle it well. On one occasion, he badly missed a wide open Sanzenbacher on an almost certain TD and the other was the Holy Ballard catch. I realize I seem far more skeptical than most, but I just question whether the improvement in his decision-making and game-management has been as drastic as everyone has declared. I really want it to happen for him — and the entire offense — but he won’t succeed unless the entire offensive operation (blocking, scheming, play-calling) improves.
So, are the 13:2 odds justified. If they play as well in every game as they did against Oregon. The real question is, what are the odds that another Purdue disaster is on the schedule?
Let’s talk about this: As near as I can tell, Ohio State’s choice to host the Thundering Herd in primetime on Thursday, September 2, 2010, was met with general praise. I think it totally sucks.
Let me first admit, my opinion is founded on almost completely selfish ideals. I do not want to rush out of work at 5:30pm, drive 30 minutes home, change my clothes, to ride my bike to the stadium, for what? Marshall? I am going to get home at 11:30 for no acceptable reason. I just don’t get it. I am not being a conservative curmudgeon, as some would suggest, but I find it hard to identify a major positive for this new date.
“A national television audience?” Doubtful, since the game is likely to be on BTN and I would be willing to bet that the ESPN noon slot gets more viewers. ”What about the awesome vibe for the game?” Contrary to often espoused statements, the night game will not create a great opening game atmosphere. In fact, I think the exact opposite is true. My guess is there will be less tailgating, a longer game (more commercials in prime time), and far worse traffic. And, unless you live within a few miles of campus you will not get home until after the local news. How many kids get to go that game?
I am sure you think I totally suck, but the new Marshall time seems like a needless waste of chest-thumping and pandering to a time-slot created for the have-nots.
Time heals all wounds? Not really: My diehard recruitnik friends seem to be getting rather restless these days. I have never dedicated an unceasing amount of energy to following recruiting and it boggles my mind the amount of time that gets devoted to it. When I say, “They consistently get mega-recruits and heroes of All American games. What more do you want?” invariably, with a minutely discernible, yet punctuating pause, they say: “They can’t close…”
Terrelle Pryor is the clear, immediate exception that should be flying through your temporal lope right now. But what if he is the only exception? Is the Buckeyes’ coaching staff losing out on game-changing players when the chips are down? I don’t know, but let’s look at some numbers.
| YEAR | COMMITMENTS AFTER DEC. 1 | NAT'L RANK OF CLASS* | AVG. STAR RATING* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 7 | 12 | 3.50 |
| 2006 | 12 | 12 | 3.60 |
| 2007 | 6 | 15 | 3.80 |
| 2008 | 6 | 4 | 3.85 |
| 2009 | 2 | 3 | 3.76 |
| 2010 | 4 | 25** | 3.35** |
So, while there may be the smallest of somethings to this armchair theory for the current season, there is no historical credibility. From the looks of the tremendously unscientific data table above, there does seem to be reason for the increased frustration experienced by some fans, and presumably, the coaches but why should we assume it is anything more than an isolated incident. I may find the number of commitments after December 1st to be the kinda troubling, as more recruiting seem to wait for the all-star games and signing to announce their choices. And, that stat does yell “closer!”, yet it seems so decidedly unfulfilling to make an argument based on such arbitrary vagaries of the calendar.
If coffee is for closers, I’d say the OSU coaching staff is plenty caffeinated.
Grasping at straws: A friend of mine recently pointed our some similarities between the upcomign season and Ohio State’s 2002 season:
- Ohio State played in the opening CFB game
- Played PSU and scUM in Columbus
- Played the Miami Hurricanes
- BCS Title Game is at the Fiesta Bowl
It is a long off-season. I need every distraction/good vibe I can get.
*Courtesy of Rivals.com [HT: Hinton]
**As of Jan. 20
Saturday is the annual day that the media proclaims one college football player top dog of his sport. Its good to see a couple of new guys get their shot at the bronze stiff arm in “Big Suh” and Toby Gerhart, as well as knowing that Tim Tebow will most likely not win his second Heisman thus preserving the legacy of Archie for at least one more year. Anyhoo, here’s the rundown on the finalists:
Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford:
- 311 attempts
- 1,736 yards
- 5.6 yards per carry average
- 26 TDs
- 0 Fumbles
- 10 receptions
- 149 yards
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska:
- 82 tackles
- 47 solo tackles
- 12 sacks
- 1 interception
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama:
- 249 carries
- 1,542 yards
- 6.2 yards per carry average
- 15 TDs
- 30 receptions
- 322 yards
- 3 TDs
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida:
- 182/279 passing (65.2%)
- 2,413 yards
- 18 TD, 5 INT
- 203 rushes
- 589 yards
- 13 TDs
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas:
- 330/468 passing (70.5%)
- 3,512 yards
- 27 TDs, 12 INT
- 128 rushes
- 348 yards
- 3 TDs
Now, who do I think should win the trophy? Well, if I had a vote I’d cast it for either Ndamukong Suh or Toby Gerhart. They both played like men among boys during their respective seasons, easily head and shoulders above anyone else at their positions this year in college football. Who do I think will actually win? Probably Mark Ingram. He had a great performance in the SEC championship game on national TV and that game, coupled with his season stats, will probably catapult him to the stage on Saturday.
My history major brain is telling me that no Civil War battle ever took place in Oregon. But, if this were 140 years ago we might be getting pretty close. Oregon and Oregon State are currently locked in their annual Civil War. I can’t imagine what those who are devout American-ites would be saying about the rivalry if it was as huge as, say…The Game. But, I digress. Oregon hasn’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1995 and Oregon State hasn’t been there since 1964. No matter who wins, our Buckeyes will be facing two teams who love to run the football and take it up and down the field. Unfortunately for them, the Pac-10 has this nasty habit of not playing defense very well (part of the reason why USC has dominated the past decade). Who would you rather see in Pasadena on January 1? I was rooting for Arizona, but since that’s out of the question, I’ll go with Oregon State for a number of reasons.
Your’s truly just jumped in Mirror Lake for the first time in his life. It was actually pretty warm. The last two years it was snowing. There was a newspaper photographer taking pictures there, so look for me in tomorrow’s Dispatch. It may or may not happen. In either case, LET’S BEAT MICHIGAN. (regardless of what terrelle pryor is doing after the last victory.)
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | PREVIOUS | SOS | NEXT GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Texas | 10-0 | 2 | 50 | v. Kansas |
| 2. | Alabama | 10-0 | 1 | 22 | v. Chattanooga |
| 3. | Florida | 10-0 | 3 | 34 | v. Florida Int'l |
| 4. | Georgia Tech | 10-1 | 4 | 12 | v. (25) Georgia (Nov. 28) |
| 5. | TCU | 10-0 | 5 | 48 | at Wyoming |
| 6. | Cincinnati | 10-0 | 6 | 65 | Idle |
| 7. | Ohio State | 9-2 | 11 | 49 | at Michigan |
| 8. | Stanford | 7-3 | 24 | 11 | v. California |
| 9. | Oregon | 8-2 | 8 | 6 | at (22) Arizona |
| 10. | Boise State | 10-0 | 12 | 91 | at Utah State (Nov. 20) |
| 11. | LSU | 8-2 | 7 | 29 | at (21) Ole Miss |
| 12. | Iowa | 9-2 | 13 | 33 | v. Minnesota |
| 13. | Pittsburgh | 9-1 | 15 | 57 | Idle |
| 14. | Oklahoma State | 8-2 | 17 | 60 | v. Colorado (Nov. 19) |
| 15. | Virginia Tech | 7-3 | 22 | 3 | v. N.C. State |
| 16. | Clemson | 7-3 | 23 | 25 | v. Virginia |
| 17. | Wisconsin | 8-2 | 21 | 54 | at Northwestern |
| 18. | Penn State | 9-2 | 18 | 84 | v. Michigan State |
| 19. | Oregon State | 7-3 | 25 | 14 | at Washington State |
| 20. | North Carolina | 7-3 | NR | 44 | at Boston College |
| 21. | Mississippi | 7-3 | NR | 61 | v. (11) LSU |
| 22. | Arizona | 6-3 | 14 | 13 | v. (9) Oregon |
| 23. | Miami | 7-3 | 10 | 8 | v. Duke |
| 24. | USC | 7-3 | 9 | 5 | Idle |
| 25. | Georgia | 6-4 | NR | 15 | v. Kentucky |
This may be the hardest piece to write each week. I have an opinion but it is compulsory in many ways. I believe in my ranking but I also know they only live for one week. Instead of attempting to justify this slop, I am just going to talk about it.
Best of a bad lot: Stanford is a the best 7-3 team. You could make an argument for Virginia Tech or Miami, but you would be wrong. I can hear you saying, “So, that makes them the 8th best team in the country right now?” No, but their back-to-back offensive clinics against Oregon and USC gives them a seriously impressive streak. If they polish off California and Notre Dame in the same fashion, they will definitely be the best 9-3 squad and deserving a ranking higher than #8.
Worst of the best: Boise State continues to excel in the not-that-impressive department. Raise your hand if you think the Broncos are the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team out there. (I have both hands up right now.) And, yes, I think Oregon would dispatch of them at this point by more than 7 points.
Uno: Does anyone else think it is weird that there are only two teams with only one loss?
This blog is nearly flatlined. I have all the same excuses that everyone else does - work, life, additional commitments, work - which is to say that I do not have any excuse at all. I intend to write each night when I am on my way home, but circumstances consistently conspire against me. I hate it, but I seem powerless - or at least sufficiently unmotivated - to combat it.
I do not have any plans to quit writing, however. It does not cost me anything but time and I am bound to stumble onto the free version of it at some point. So, for the three of you that bother to check this site once every four weeks, just know that there may be new content showing up at some point.
Now, no sooner do I make that statement, than I need to mention that I will be out of the country for a while starting Saturday. Yes, I will miss the Game. That is a painful admission.
I am flying to Shanghai early Saturday morning. By the time the Buckeyes score the first of their 7 touchdowns, I will be gaining on the Arctic Circle at 40,000 feet (the flight path from Chicago is close to the north pole).
Rose Bowl Rap Dept.: Ohio State’s Rose Bowl opponent will remain unclear for another couple of weeks but if it were to be Oregon, they appear to have an early lead in the rap department.
[HT: SHall]
I don’t want to jinx us with the picture, but the entire off-season, the entire regular season has led up to today (well, about 2 hours from today). I will be live tweeting my thoughts and observations on the game, so if you’re a twitter fan pay attention. Here’s to the first Rose Bowl in the new millennium. Cheers.
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | PREVIOUS | SOS | NEXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Alabama | 9-0 | 1 | 25 | at Mississippi State |
| 2. | Texas | 9-0 | 2 | 52 | at Baylor |
| 3. | Florida | 9-0 | 3 | 42 | at South Carolina |
| 4. | Georgia Tech | 9-1 | 5 | 12 | at Duke |
| 5. | TCU | 9-0 | 9 | 47 | v. (20) Utah |
| 6. | Cincinnati | 9-0 | 7 | 67 | v. West Virginia |
| 7. | LSU | 7-2 | 8 | 17 | v. Louisiana Tech |
| 8. | Oregon | 7-2 | 4 | 6 | v. Arizona State |
| 9. | USC | 7-2 | 11 | 7 | v. (24) Stanford |
| 10. | Miami | 7-2 | 18 | 11 | at North Carolina |
| 11. | Ohio State | 8-2 | 19 | 46 | v. (13) Iowa |
| 12. | Boise State | 9-0 | 13 | 82 | v. Idaho |
| 13. | Iowa | 9-1 | 6 | 39 | at (11) Ohio State |
| 14. | Arizona | 6-2 | 14 | 16 | at California |
| 15. | Pittsburgh | 8-1 | 15 | 70 | v. Notre Dame |
| 16. | Houston | 8-1 | 16 | 94 | at Central Florida |
| 17. | Oklahoma State | 7-2 | 20 | 68 | v. Texas Tech |
| 18. | Penn State | 8-2 | 12 | 72 | v. Indiana |
| 19. | Tennessee | 5-4 | 25 | 32 | at Ole Miss |
| 20. | Utah | 8-1 | 24 | 99 | at (5) TCU |
| 21. | Wisconsin | 7-2 | 22 | 44 | v. Michigan |
| 22. | Virginia Tech | 6-3 | 21 | 4 | at Maryland |
| 23. | Clemson | 6-3 | NR | 23 | at N.C. State |
| 24. | Stanford | 6-3 | NR | 15 | at (9) USC |
| 25. | Oregon State | 6-3 | NR | 9 | v. Washington |
Let’s Start at the End(zone): The bottom half of this thing is regoddamnduculous. Once you get past Pittsburgh, it is essentially arbitrary selection. As soon as you hit the mid-teens all teams look the same: hideously inconsistent, burdened with multiple defeats (one inexplicable), and aiming for a season that will ultiamtely be crowned by a post season appearance sponsored by company that you would not work for.
Am I being too hard on Virginia Tech? Almost certainly, as two of their losses are to my #1 and #4 teams, respectively. Oh yeah, they lost to Chapel Hill along the way. Ick. Meanwhile, a team they throttled resides at #10. I know. I am an idot.
Seriously: Tennessee at #19? They are only 2-3 in the SEC and played the worst really close game in recent memory against Alabama. How can they even be ranked?
While we are in the neighborhood, should Penn State even be ranked? What is their best win? Temple? Northwestern? Could they really beat Wisconsin?
Thank God for 1-3: Eventually, this triumvirate will have to change. Or, maybe not. These are the best three teams around, easily. Could GT really rush for their customary quarter mile against the top dogs? Will you on TCU, Cincinnati, or Boise State against the Tide or Gators or Longhorns?
The Best of the (2-loss) Rest: The Tigers have lost close games against Florida and Alabama, a distinction they share with Tennessee. That does not necessarily make them the best 2-loss team, just the least offensive.
And, yes, Boise State is #12. Does that defense look any good to you? Not me. They need to be nuking their competition and, to the contrary, they are struggling for large parts of their games. I don’t want to hear about the Oregon game from 2 months ago. One game does not a ranking make.
