By now, you have read the litany of reasons why Texas would be foolish not to join the Big Ten. Sure, it seems a little premature and the Big Ten has, in fact, stated that they are looking for recommendations regarding expansion over the next 12-18 months. Commissioner Delaney recently discussed the league’s expansion agenda and Barry Alvarez said that the Longhorns are not on the list of initial candidates. Despite the repudiations from Delaney and Alvarez regarding an imminent expansion, the topic has been a big topic of discussion at dinner tables in the Midwest ever since the Texas rumor was floated out there.
I am not terribly interested in discussing whether or not Texas should join, or how much money the new league would generate from television contracts. We all know that Big Ten expansion is a money grab: add a 12th team (or perhaps more), stage a conference championship game, and count the new piles of cash that flow in. Alvarez is not shy about admitting that fact.
I do not object to Big Ten expansion but I think it can be about more than money. If the Big Ten wants to be as or more relevant than every other conference they should innovate in the way that they integrate any additional team(s).
First, we need to recognize some truths about the Conference. To this point in Big Ten history the entire league is about these two teams and the season-ending matchup. For the vast majority of the League’s history, not much else has mattered in the conference. Seriously. Sorry Iowa, Wisconsin, and even Penn State.
This truth presents some immediate quandaries. You cannot split Ohio State and Michigan up into different divisions because you risk having them play two weeks in a row (the final regular season week and then imagined Big Ten Championship Game). You cannot place them in the same division, either. That would only ensure that The Game is at best for the opportunity to play for the conference title. The idea that Ohio State and Michigan will never play again with the conference title on the line makes me ill.
If the Big Ten wants to expand and dominate the college football landscape and, thus, the television markets, there is a solution that would create a more compelling 12 team league. The Big Ten could preserve The Game, get continued exposure through the first week of December, all while owning three different weekends during the season. How? Maintain one division, play a 10-game round-robin schedule with the elite teams playing the weekends each season.
Here is how it would work.
For the sake of blogging (and awesomeness), let’s assume Texas is the League’s twelfth team. The Conference should ensure that Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Texas all play during every season. No scheduling quirks. No years off. The Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions already play every season, so this would only mean adding Texas as a regularly scheduled opponent for each. And, to ensure the Big Ten gets maximum exposure out of these matchups, they need to play the same weekends every year - let’s say the last weekend of September, October, and November. This is what it would look like in 2010:
| Date | Matchups |
|---|---|
| September 25 | Ohio State v. Penn State Michigan v. Texas |
| October 30 | Michigan v. Penn State Texas v. Ohio State |
| November 27 | Ohio State v. Michigan Penn State v. Texas |
This is a win, win, win. On the field, the Conference would create a de facto tournament. The first of its kind. I realize that ties are theoretically possible, a 10-game regular decreases this risk because only one conference opponent is skipped.
From a television perspective, the Conference’s bargaining position with the WWL and ABC surely increases, while the Big Ten Network will most likely get to show a game involving one of the big 4 each weekend, which will continue to draw more viewers to the network. It is hard to imagine any conference could compete with those weekends on a yearly basis. As a result, on average, the Big Ten will own the major national viewing audience for at least three football weekends.
From a tradition standpoint, the League preserves the greatest rivalry in sports and give birth to some new ones without having to manufacture some ridiculous championship game affiliated with a soda company.
For me, and I think many Big Ten football fans, this solution would be great. What do you think? What potential pitfalls have I overlooked?
The recent coaching-related events at Florida, USC, Tennessee, and Notre Dame have frequently sparked the conversation topic, “Who would replace Tressel?”
True, Tressel does not draw the lusty looks from the NFL the same way Carroll did, and he does not seem to share his desire to coach the pros either. Tressel does not appear to pour himself into the job in a way that leads to health concerns as Urban Meyer does, and this is his dream job so there is no risk of him bolting to another program. Lastly, and most importantly, he wins a lot of games, which is the ultimate decider of a coach’s longevity. Even though Tressel, and Ohio State, have nothing in common with the situations at the aforementioned schools, it illustrates how quickly things can change.
This may sound sacrilegious, but my first thought when pondering this hyppothetical, yet impending scenario is “It is not going to be easy to get a new, successful coach.” Ohio State is one of the best jobs in college football, has a an abundance of tradition, a culture of winning, tremendous facilities, unreal support from the community. USC and Notre Dame have similar attributes and those two programs have not exactly been plucking their first choices out of the air.
Tressel probably has 4-5 years left at Ohio State. That is purely a guess but five seasons from now, at the conclusion of the 2014 campaign, JT would have coached 14 seasons, and likely would leave the second-winningest coach in Ohio State history (Hayes had 205 wins in 28 seasons), with the highest winning percentage (currently .817-percent) of coaches that have been on the sidelines for a measurable period of time. (Carroll Widdoes went 16-2 in 1944-45.)
We have all heard the sports cliche “It is hard to follow a legend,” and that is exactly what the next Ohio State coach will be asked to do.
So, who might those individuals be? The names below are by no means a wish list, but rather a likely starting point for any discussion regarding Tressel’s successor. Chime in with your thoughts/wishes below.
Coach of the Moment
A lot can happen in 5 years. The next Urban Meyer or Brian Kelly is currently a position coach at a MAC school building up cred in FCS, so we cannot mention them specifically by name, but there will be hot names at the time Tressel steps that will surely be bandied about. Will they have Ohio (State) or Big Ten ties? Will they be more Urban Meyer than Dan Hawkins?
Superstar Long Shots
It has become one of college football’s greatest pastimes, naming all the major, successful coaches that are candidates for the most recent opening at tradition power. Jon Gruden’s name comes up every time. Unless he is coaching somewhere else, his name will appear in dozens of articles and blog posts across the web when OSU is looking.
Likewise, Bob Stoops names will be listed as someone with a considerable Ohio connections that may “be looking for a new challenge.” Unless Stoops really wants to come back to Ohio, it is hard to imagine why he would abandon the program he built to follow in the footsteps of a contemporary legend. It just doesn’t make sense.
Same goes for Urban Meyer. I know he was born and raised in Ohio and received graduate degree from tOSU while working as a graduate assistant under Earle Bruce, but he would have to be motivated almost entirely by a desire to come home if he were to take the job in Columbus. It could happen, but it seems very unlikely.
Non-AQ Coaches
This group could have some overlap with the first category. Currently, this group has a membership of 3: Chris Peterson at Boise State, TCU’s Gary Patterson, and Kyle Whittingham of Utah. The problem is, collectively, those three coaches have barely spent any time east of the Mississippi and, aside from the draw of coaching an all-time great program (which is significant), they would have little reason to make the move to Ohio. Oh, there is probably a salary increase in it for them.
The other non-AQ coach doing good things is Ken Niumatalolo at Navy. It seems ridiculous to think that Ohio State, with its pipeline to the NFL tradition, would be willing to entertain jeopardizing their ability to recruit top tier players and switch to the triple option. This is really not an option for OSU (pun intended).
Other Scenarios
The other super popular situation sweeping through college football right now is the “coach-in-waiting” philosophy. Florida State and Texas pioneered this set-up and the Seminoles recently executed the plan. This, however, seems impossible to expect from Ohio State. Tressel has shown no inkling to hire a big name coordinator or fire any of his current staff who may not be living up to the fans’ expectations. Moreover, there is not a coach on the staff right now that is capable of being a head coach. Darrell Hazell may get there someday but he certainly does not warrant the CiW status right now.
Equally unlikely is a promotion form within. Aside from Mark Dantonio and Mark Snyder, no coach under Tressel has received consideration for a head coaching position. Fickell is constantly rumored to be in line for jobs, but that is all. For Fickell to end up the head man on Ohio Stadium’s west sideline, he is going to need head coaching experience somewhere.
Finally, would Ohio State take a flyer on Larry Kehres of Mount Union? Could they possibly strike gold with another heralded coach from the lower ranks?
Yep, the former Buckeye duece wants this year’s numero uno.
Happiness and optimism abound in for all things Ohio State football, and recently Tim May and Ken Gordon indulged a little bit in that revelry. Is all the talk about what is to come justified? Should you expect to be high-fiving your buddies this time in 2011?
Vegas thinks Ohio State’s odds are pretty good (at the moment). Let’s talk about it.
According to the gurus at Bodog, the Buckeyes’ are a better bet than everyone except Alabama. Other oddsmakers have slightly different interpretations, but they are all relatively similar. Here is the Bodog Top 15:
2011 BCS Championship Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Alabama | 3:1 |
| Ohio State | 13:2 |
| Oregon | 12:1 |
| Southern Cal | 12:1 |
| Oklahoma | 15:1 |
| Texas | 15:1 |
| Nebraska | 15:1 |
| Boise State | 15:1 |
| Virginia Tech | 18:1 |
| TCU | 18:1 |
| Iowa | 20:1 |
| Penn State | 20:1 |
| Miami | 20:1 |
| Florida | 25:1 |
| LSU | 25:1 |
Other odds of note:
Other Notable 2011 BCS Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Michigan | 50:1 |
| Notre Dame | 75:1 |
| Illinois | 100:1 |
| Michigan State | 100:1 |
| Northwestern | 125:1 |
The field’s odds: The Tide is an top obvious selection as they are bringing back a cadre of starters and stars - Ingram, Jones, McElroy - but I found it slightly surprising that Boise State was not considered to have as good or greater odds than Nebraska, Oklahoma, and/or USC, all teams that lost a significant amount of firepower, including a Heisman winner and future no. 1 draft choice. As you probably know, I am not supporter of the non-AQ field, but I thought the Broncos may have generated more gambling buzz.
Another surprise for me was Virginia Tech’s relatively low odds considering the league they play in sucks on ice, while they are returning a reputable amount of talent. Finally, Ohio State plays three teams with odds of 20:1. By my count, they are the only team to play such (theoretically) contending teams.
OSU odds: While, I share the optimism for 2010 and I agree with most fans that Pryor looked far, far better in the Rose Bowl than he did at any point during the year, we should be cautious about getting too carried away about him. I thought that the main difference in his Rose Bowl play was that he had time to operate, which I attributed to four things: (1) improved o-line play, (2) balanced play calling that kept Oregon’s defense guessing, (3) a small, average Oregon defensive front, and (4) Oregon’s coaches’ inability to adjust to OSU’s pass-heavy gameplan. Pryor’s mistakes in the Purdue debacle almost all came when he panicked under the pressure that Purdue brought. He only faced pressure in his face three or four times against the Ducks and, frankly, he still didn’t handle it well. On one occasion, he badly missed a wide open Sanzenbacher on an almost certain TD and the other was the Holy Ballard catch. I realize I seem far more skeptical than most, but I just question whether the improvement in his decision-making and game-management has been as drastic as everyone has declared. I really want it to happen for him — and the entire offense — but he won’t succeed unless the entire offensive operation (blocking, scheming, play-calling) improves.
So, are the 13:2 odds justified. If they play as well in every game as they did against Oregon. The real question is, what are the odds that another Purdue disaster is on the schedule?
Let’s talk about this: As near as I can tell, Ohio State’s choice to host the Thundering Herd in primetime on Thursday, September 2, 2010, was met with general praise. I think it totally sucks.
Let me first admit, my opinion is founded on almost completely selfish ideals. I do not want to rush out of work at 5:30pm, drive 30 minutes home, change my clothes, to ride my bike to the stadium, for what? Marshall? I am going to get home at 11:30 for no acceptable reason. I just don’t get it. I am not being a conservative curmudgeon, as some would suggest, but I find it hard to identify a major positive for this new date.
“A national television audience?” Doubtful, since the game is likely to be on BTN and I would be willing to bet that the ESPN noon slot gets more viewers. ”What about the awesome vibe for the game?” Contrary to often espoused statements, the night game will not create a great opening game atmosphere. In fact, I think the exact opposite is true. My guess is there will be less tailgating, a longer game (more commercials in prime time), and far worse traffic. And, unless you live within a few miles of campus you will not get home until after the local news. How many kids get to go that game?
I am sure you think I totally suck, but the new Marshall time seems like a needless waste of chest-thumping and pandering to a time-slot created for the have-nots.
Time heals all wounds? Not really: My diehard recruitnik friends seem to be getting rather restless these days. I have never dedicated an unceasing amount of energy to following recruiting and it boggles my mind the amount of time that gets devoted to it. When I say, “They consistently get mega-recruits and heroes of All American games. What more do you want?” invariably, with a minutely discernible, yet punctuating pause, they say: “They can’t close…”
Terrelle Pryor is the clear, immediate exception that should be flying through your temporal lope right now. But what if he is the only exception? Is the Buckeyes’ coaching staff losing out on game-changing players when the chips are down? I don’t know, but let’s look at some numbers.
| YEAR | COMMITMENTS AFTER DEC. 1 | NAT'L RANK OF CLASS* | AVG. STAR RATING* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 7 | 12 | 3.50 |
| 2006 | 12 | 12 | 3.60 |
| 2007 | 6 | 15 | 3.80 |
| 2008 | 6 | 4 | 3.85 |
| 2009 | 2 | 3 | 3.76 |
| 2010 | 4 | 25** | 3.35** |
So, while there may be the smallest of somethings to this armchair theory for the current season, there is no historical credibility. From the looks of the tremendously unscientific data table above, there does seem to be reason for the increased frustration experienced by some fans, and presumably, the coaches but why should we assume it is anything more than an isolated incident. I may find the number of commitments after December 1st to be the kinda troubling, as more recruiting seem to wait for the all-star games and signing to announce their choices. And, that stat does yell “closer!”, yet it seems so decidedly unfulfilling to make an argument based on such arbitrary vagaries of the calendar.
If coffee is for closers, I’d say the OSU coaching staff is plenty caffeinated.
Grasping at straws: A friend of mine recently pointed our some similarities between the upcomign season and Ohio State’s 2002 season:
- Ohio State played in the opening CFB game
- Played PSU and scUM in Columbus
- Played the Miami Hurricanes
- BCS Title Game is at the Fiesta Bowl
It is a long off-season. I need every distraction/good vibe I can get.
*Courtesy of Rivals.com [HT: Hinton]
**As of Jan. 20
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | SOS* | BEST WIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Alabama | 14-0 | 2 | v. (2) FLorida, 32-13 |
| 2. | Florida | 13-1 | 15 | v. (12) Cincinnati, 51-24 |
| 3. | Texas | 13-1 | 38 | v. Oklahoma St., 41-14 |
| 4. | Ohio State | 11-2 | 50 | v. (6) Oregon, 26-17 |
| 5. | Boise State | 14-0 | 96 | v. (10) TCU, 17-10 |
| 6. | Oregon | 10-3 | 6 | v. (21) USC, 47-20 |
| 7. | Nebraska | 10-4 | 52 | v. Arizona, 33-0 |
| 8. | Iowa | 11-2 | 41 | @ (9) Penn State, 21-10 |
| 9. | Penn State | 11-2 | 73 | v. (16) LSU, 19-17 |
| 10. | TCU | 12-1 | 60 | v. Utah, 55-28 |
| 11. | Virginia Tech | 10-3 | 13 | v. (19) Miami, 31-7 |
| 12. | Cincinnati | 12-1 | 44 | @ Oregon State, 28-18 |
| 13. | Georgia Tech | 11-3 | 10 | v. (11) Virginia Tech, 28-23 |
| 14. | Pittsburgh | 10-3 | 40 | v. Notre Dame, 27-22 |
| 15. | Wisconsin | 10-3 | 64 | v. (19) Miami, 20-14 |
| 16. | LSU | 9-4 | 5 | v. Georgia, 20-13 |
| 17. | Mississippi | 9-4 | 46 | v. (16) LSU, 25-23 |
| 18. | Miami | 9-4 | 8 | v. (13) Georgia Tech, 33-17 |
| 19. | USC | 9-4 | 19 | @ (4) Ohio State, 18-15 |
| 20. | BYU | 11-2 | 61 | v. (23) Oklahoma, 14-13 |
| 21. | North Carolina | 8-5 | 32 | @ (11) Virginia Tech, 20-17 |
| 22. | Texas Tech | 9-4 | 62 | @ (7) Nebraska, 31-10 |
| 23. | Oklahoma | 8-5 | 22 | v. (24) Stanford, 31-27 |
| 24. | Stanford | 8-5 | 29 | v. (6) Oregon, 51-42 |
| 25. | Navy | 10-4 | 82 | v. Missouri, 35-13 |
Well, there it is. Another year in the books accompanied by another Final Top 25 that barely makes sense at this point. If preseason poll makes no sense based on lack of play, the final poll makes equally little sense when considered against the backdrop of an entire season’s worth of games. I mean, when teams have 3, 4, and 5 losses there is a very good chance that a team has defeated and lost to other teams both ahead and behind them. Feel free to take shots at these rankings but know that I did put a lot of thought into them (not to mention hours and hours of “research”).
Please keep in mind, these are the rankings of teams as I believe them to be at this moment. It is not a reward for the entire season.
Top Tier: Alabama, Florida, and Texas were clearly the best and most consistent teams in 2009. Despite close calls by all three teams, for me, there is no credible argument for placing any other team with the top 3. Alabama proved to be the nation’s best, while the difference between Texas and Florida is still unclear considering the Colt-less circumstances with which the Longhorns were required to deal with Tide. But I rank Florida ahead of Texas for a different, yet similar reason: the circumstances that Florida faced while trying to beat Alabama.
The Tide had spent year waking second since the 2008 SECCG, be it offseason conditioning, spring practice, fall camp, or the entire 2009 campaign, to work on one thing. Beating Florida. That proved too much for the fighting Tebows.
Best of the Rest: Ohio State, somewhat miraculously, found their way to #4 in my final ballot. I am as shocked as you may be. Pryor’s Rose Bowl performance alongside another super solid defensive effort, makes the Buckeyes an extremely formidable opponent. I do not think they would stand much of a chance against the Top 3, but they appeared capable of beating everyone else out there. Let me know if you think I am still wearing the Rose-colored glasses.
Answers to some Questions: “Nebraska in the top 10? Oklahoma ranked at all (much less #23)? What is wrong with you?” Didn’t you notice the Big 12’s lackluster bowl performances?” The answer to all of those questions is “yes.” Nebraska’s defense is rolling, doing a better job against a Longhorn squad armed with Colt than the Tide defense did without.
If you do not believe in Stanford, then you will not be swayed by the Sooners Sun Bowl victory. And, quite honestly, any ranking after #10 is a hot mess, which is fairly reflective of reality at the end of the season.
*SOS provided by Sagarin’s rankings
Saturday is the annual day that the media proclaims one college football player top dog of his sport. Its good to see a couple of new guys get their shot at the bronze stiff arm in “Big Suh” and Toby Gerhart, as well as knowing that Tim Tebow will most likely not win his second Heisman thus preserving the legacy of Archie for at least one more year. Anyhoo, here’s the rundown on the finalists:
Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford:
- 311 attempts
- 1,736 yards
- 5.6 yards per carry average
- 26 TDs
- 0 Fumbles
- 10 receptions
- 149 yards
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska:
- 82 tackles
- 47 solo tackles
- 12 sacks
- 1 interception
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama:
- 249 carries
- 1,542 yards
- 6.2 yards per carry average
- 15 TDs
- 30 receptions
- 322 yards
- 3 TDs
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida:
- 182/279 passing (65.2%)
- 2,413 yards
- 18 TD, 5 INT
- 203 rushes
- 589 yards
- 13 TDs
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas:
- 330/468 passing (70.5%)
- 3,512 yards
- 27 TDs, 12 INT
- 128 rushes
- 348 yards
- 3 TDs
Now, who do I think should win the trophy? Well, if I had a vote I’d cast it for either Ndamukong Suh or Toby Gerhart. They both played like men among boys during their respective seasons, easily head and shoulders above anyone else at their positions this year in college football. Who do I think will actually win? Probably Mark Ingram. He had a great performance in the SEC championship game on national TV and that game, coupled with his season stats, will probably catapult him to the stage on Saturday.
By now you know who is facing whom in all of the BCS games this year. But for the record here is the rundown:
Sugar Bowl:
Cincinnati vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl:
Boise State vs. Texas Christian
Orange Bowl:
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
Rose Bowl:
Oregon vs. Ohio State
BCS National Championship Game:
Texas vs. Alabama
Well, as much as it would seem that the BCS hates the Big Ten, they’re one of only two conferences to get two teams into BCS bowls. (Partially due to the two “mid-majors” in the Fiesta Bowl.) I would love to see Texas beat Alabama because I really don’t like the SEC and never have, but I’m kind of getting tired of this whole “Big 12 vs. SEC” game for the national championship. And I really don’t understand the Fiesta Bowl matchup. I know both TCU and Boise have been trying to make a case to play for the title, but playing each other isn’t going to get it done. If anything, I think the greatest interest would have come from switching TCU and Cincy in their respective bowl games. But I digress. For the state of Ohio football, I hope that Florida puts Cincinnati in their place by 30 and that Ohio State is able to muscle out a win against Oregon. Tell me your predictions below in the comments section.
My history major brain is telling me that no Civil War battle ever took place in Oregon. But, if this were 140 years ago we might be getting pretty close. Oregon and Oregon State are currently locked in their annual Civil War. I can’t imagine what those who are devout American-ites would be saying about the rivalry if it was as huge as, say…The Game. But, I digress. Oregon hasn’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1995 and Oregon State hasn’t been there since 1964. No matter who wins, our Buckeyes will be facing two teams who love to run the football and take it up and down the field. Unfortunately for them, the Pac-10 has this nasty habit of not playing defense very well (part of the reason why USC has dominated the past decade). Who would you rather see in Pasadena on January 1? I was rooting for Arizona, but since that’s out of the question, I’ll go with Oregon State for a number of reasons.
Your’s truly just jumped in Mirror Lake for the first time in his life. It was actually pretty warm. The last two years it was snowing. There was a newspaper photographer taking pictures there, so look for me in tomorrow’s Dispatch. It may or may not happen. In either case, LET’S BEAT MICHIGAN. (regardless of what terrelle pryor is doing after the last victory.)
